Although not the first of their kind, the ballistic missile attacks against three bulk carriers carried out on December 3 in the Red Sea by Yemeni Houthi rebels have represented a significant escalation of risk for commercial shipping in the region. The USS Carney, an American Arleigh Burke-class missile destroyer, shot down several unmanned aerial vehicles that appeared to be headed toward it as it came to the aid of the attacked ships. Fortunately, the attacks, which occurred at different times of the day, caused no injuries and only relatively minor damage to the three ships, Unity Explorer, Number 9 and Sophie II.
The US Central Command has declared that it is studying “appropriate responses” to attacks that, in addition to threatening international trade and maritime security, have endangered the lives of crews from several countries. He added that although the perpetrators were Houthis, the attacks had been “fully facilitated by Iran.” The careful wording reflects the reality that, while the missiles were undoubtedly supplied by Iran and the strikes will have been welcomed in Tehran, the Houthis may have acted on their own. What seems certain is that more such attacks are coming.
Emile Hokayem, an expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) on how Iran uses intermediaries in the region, says the attacks represent a strategic opportunity for the Houthis in several ways. The first is that by linking them to Israel’s attack on Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis can improve their position in the Arab world, where the Palestinian cause continues to enjoy a prestige and emotions are running high today. The attacks allow them to demonstrate that they are, as they have always stated, on the side of the oppressed and, furthermore, that they are not only capable of attacking targets located in Saudi Arabia.
The second is that they send a clear signal that the Red Sea is now, by extension, a legitimate theater of the fight against Israel and that they are willing to attack American warships and also commercial shipping that may have some relationship with Israel, however tenuous it may be. The sophistication of the attacks also shows that the Houthis are far from being, as has sometimes been considered, an armed group made up of ragtag individuals.
Fabian Hinz, a specialist in missiles and drones in the Middle East region and a Hokayem researcher at IISS, claims that the Houthis have received a large number of drones and anti-ship missiles from Iran. They have also seized weapons from the Yemeni army and adapted them. They have at least ten different anti-ship missiles in their arsenal, including Exocet-type missiles based on Chinese designs (such as El Mandeb 1 and 2), which capture radar signals and have a range of about 120 kilometers. They also have Quds Z-0 and Sayyad cruise missiles, with a range of up to 800 kilometers and radar seekers and infrared or electrical-optical systems to locate targets.
In addition, the Houthis have assembled an arsenal of anti-ship ballistic missiles ranging from locally produced short-range systems to longer-range and much heavier missiles, such as the Asef and the solid-propellant Tankil (based respectively on the Fateh and Raad missiles). -500 Iranian, which carry a 300-kilogram warhead and are designed to hit a warship from a distance of up to 500 kilometers). The limited damage reported in the latest attacks suggests that smaller missiles were used.
Such are the capabilities of the Houthis and such is the size and diversity of their panoply of anti-ship missiles that they could well do in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb (which is, off the Yemeni coast, the choke point of the Red Sea). what Iran has often threatened to do in the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen is not an ideal place to attack Israel, but it is perfect to attack Red Sea shipping.
Bolstering that arsenal are a variety of Iranian attack drones, including the Shahed 136 that Russia is using against Ukraine. As for those shot down by the Carney, Hinz thinks that they were surely intelligence and surveillance drones cloned by the Iranians from the American RQ-21. In addition to aerial drones, the Houthis also have naval drones and mine-laying capabilities.
It does not seem likely that American warships in the region are at great risk from Houthi missiles. They have very good defenses, although a stroke of luck in a salvo attack can never be ruled out. Another question is whether such ships would be able to offer sufficient protection to commercial shipping should the Houthis increase the frequency and intensity of their attacks. Under such circumstances, pressure would increase on the Americans to destroy missile launch and storage sites in Yemen, assuming they could find them.
In a speech over the weekend, Leon Panetta, former US defense secretary, advocated for a more aggressive approach against Iran’s proxies. However, as Hokayem says, the last thing the US government wants is to be dragged into the Yemeni civil war, a conflict that the White House has recently worked to de-escalate.
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Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
