A year ago, on the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, there was already a feeling that this conflict was going to last a long time and that diplomatic means had to be chosen as the best option to resolve it, despite all the difficulties that it could entail. . Thousands of dead later, the situation has obviously worsened for Ukraine and concern is growing in Europe about Vladimir Putin’s future plans. What goes from one year to the next does not invite optimism at all.
Beyond the fact that Russia seems to have regained dominance in the conflict, once the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, what is more worrying is Putin’s defiant attitude. The death of Alexei Navalny and the arrests of all those who seek to honor him are the best proof of this. The mother of the opposition leader revealed yesterday that she received an ultimatum from the Russian authorities if she wanted to recover her son’s body: either she agreed to organize a secret funeral without means and without public tributes, or they would bury him in the Arctic prison where he died.
Russian arrogance is also understood by the little impact that Western economic sanctions are having. Yesterday Joe Biden promoted another new package of measures due to the death of Navalni, but the Russian economy grew 3.6% last year, much more than the European average or a few tenths more than the American economy itself.
The entry into NATO of Finland and Sweden – Hungary gave its consent to the entry yesterday – does not weaken the animosity of the Russian leader. Likewise, the general feeling in the countries bordering Russia is that they could be the next victims if the invasion of Ukraine succeeds. All that was missing was the increasingly plausible alternative of the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House and the consequent paralysis of US military support to Ukraine for Putin to feel more grown up every day. Well supported by its allies in China and North Korea, Russia feels increasingly stronger in its fight against the West. And the diplomatic channel of negotiation is even more dead than a year ago.
