A few days after CIA Director Bill Burns warned that Ukraine was in danger of “losing” the war this year without American help, the US Congress approved a 57 billion euro package that will allow the Ukrainians to hold the lines despite the critical shortage of ammunition that has caused them to retreat from the front lines.
The uncertain end of the war will depend in part on the military and financial capacity that confronts Russia and its allies (Iran and North Korea) with Ukraine and its allies (mainly, the nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization [NATO]. ). The contribution of the United States and Europe in aid to the Central European country (298.89 billion euros) is equivalent to more than a year of Ukraine’s GDP in periods of peace. The Ukrainian gross domestic product in 2021 was €186.93 billion.
Since the start of the war in February 2022, the United States has provided more than €88 billion (€45.5 billion in the new aid package) in military assistance to Ukraine, surpassing that provided by the next four largest contributors—the Nordic countries. , Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland — combined, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Much of the US military aid has gone to providing weapons and equipment to the Ukrainian front. First with the Stinger and Javelin missiles, and later with the high mobility artillery rockets, HIMARS. It has also provided Patriot anti-missile batteries, the most advanced weapons that have reached the front since 2022, MI-17 helicopters, Abraham tanks and more than two million 155-millimeter artillery shells, the basic ammunition of this war.
Artillery and drones
In the new phase of the war represented by the North American aid package, artillery and drones will be essential. Artillery has been known as the “king of battle” for centuries, and this remains largely the case today, accounting for 80% of casualties on both sides.
In recent months, ammunition shortages and the blocking of aid by the US Congress have caused the Ukrainian army to go from being five to one at a disadvantage in artillery fire to ten to one. But the return of aid should reduce, though not eliminate, Ukraine’s disadvantage. According to NATO intelligence estimates, Russia is on track to produce almost three times as many artillery shells this year (about 3 million) as the United States and Europe combined (about 1.2 million).
Washington’s help will also increase the number of drones, used both for reconnaissance and in attacks. Drones have become a new (and vital) addition to the military arsenal, and although Ukraine already has a robust drone industry, it is losing around ten thousand drones a month. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine’s partners plan to supply another million drones this year.
US financial aid to Ukraine
Just over 20% of total US aid to Ukraine has been allocated to non-military purposes. Washington has allocated 36.43 billion euros to budget aid through the Economic Support Fund and loans to kyiv.
In the package recently approved in the United States Congress, approximately 10 billion euros have been allocated to economic assistance and are to be returned. But a clause is also included by which the president can forgive these loans starting in 2026, which would allow Trump, opposed to non-refundable aid, to demand repayment if he wins the elections and Biden to exonerate Kiev if he is re-elected.
Unlike Washington’s policy, which has allocated more than half of its aid to the military field, Brussels has allocated 4.1% of its 136.96 billion euros to weapons. The bulk of European aid has focused on financial support for kyiv and what the European Commission calls the “Ukraine Reconstruction Facility”, with an allocation of €50 billion between 2024 and 2024.
The European Union (EU) wants Zelensky’s government to be able to provide uninterrupted public services, mobilize investments in Ukraine’s private sector for a rapid economic recovery, as well as support the country to carry out the necessary reforms on its path to accession. to the 27 club.
Regarding European military aid to Ukraine, since 2022, it has provided military material with an estimated value of 2 billion euros, in addition to training more than 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers. Also, Denmark, Belgium and Norway are expected to provide the Ukrainian Army with F-16 fighters this summer.
Aid from the West is intended to be a counterweight to Russia, in which Vladimir Putin enjoys the dictatorial privilege of having doubled the military budget since 2021. In fact, war is now the main engine of the Russian economy.
