The war in Ukraine is a laboratory where the great powers are tempted before approaching a hypothetical large-scale conflict. The east of the European breadbasket is the test bed for new weapons, especially drones and missiles, to gauge their lethality with live fire. The military result will measure whether the war tension increases or subsides while waiting for a new opportunity to address the definition of a new world order.
Ukraine is much more than a regional conflict because it has brought to light the correlation of alliances that will define the future of this century. As the combat front stabilized, support for the contenders has become more blatant. On the Ukrainian side, the United States at the head of a coalition where Europe is active and under the umbrella of NATO. China, Iran and North Korea, weapons suppliers and Putin’s lifeline to avoid international sanctions, are aligned with Russia. The alliance of the four dictatorships has set off alarms in the Pacific, where Beijing’s hegemonic aspiration terrifies its neighbors. The answer is the renewed military agreement between the United States and Japan, to which South Korea will be added and which completes the Aukus, the acronym formed by the mutual defense pact between Australia and the United Kingdom, in addition to the United States.
With this division of forces and interests, Ukraine’s future will not be decided on the battlefield alone. The 57 billion euros of military aid that the North American Congress has delivered to the Ukrainian Government will allow it to regain the initiative in a war that it had almost lost. But there are also millions whose objective is to wear down the arsenals of the pro-Russian autocrats and warn them that democracy will not kneel without standing up to them. The hope is that Putin’s credit will be lost among the thousands of Russian soldiers he has sentenced to death, that the Chinese economy will not raise its head and that Iran’s ayatollahs will continue to engage in a drawing room war with Israel and its adversaries in the region. .
The big game is ready and the sides are defined. The answer to whether it is time to roll the dice is hidden in Ukraine.
