The war in Ukraine could be long, but in Turkey they have already won. The same as in Georgia, Emirates or Kazakhstan.
Since the beginning of the conflict, Ankara has opted for active neutrality, in pursuit of a negotiated solution. Something that has not only earned the respect of both contenders, but also great benefits for Turkish companies.
The ports in the orbit of Istanbul, Izmir and Mersin are operating at full capacity thanks to Russia’s import appetite, not satisfied by the usual channels and often not by the usual suppliers either.
The large European shipping companies, which no longer call in Russia, do so in Turkey more than ever. There, the containers pass into the hands of local shipping companies, such as Medkon, which already offers its second regular line of merchandise to Novorossiysk, on the Russian coast of the Black Sea, a sea at war.
First of all, there is nothing illegal about it. First, because the list of goods restricted by the EU is not that extensive. And second, because Turkey has not adopted sanctions against Moscow.
When it can be, explains a firm that says it has tripled its business, the client asks that the cargo be sent by other means to Kazakhstan, where it can enter Russia duty-free, by road or rail. Before that, “up to five Kazakh companies buy and sell the order among themselves to erase the trail.”
Likewise, wealthy Russians, dissidents or fugitives have made all kinds of import and export companies flourish from their laptops, in Antalya or Istanbul. Often by obtaining Turkish citizenship, for these investments or for others of a real estate nature. Dubai and Yerevan are two other cities where the phones are smoking.
Likewise, Georgia’s economy expects to grow 10% this year due to the influx of Russians and commercial and real estate fever. Even trailer rates between Istanbul and Tbilisi “have doubled,” according to an industry source.
The West knows all this, but its warnings have been lukewarm, because it also knows that no one welcomes more Russian dissidents than Turkey, Georgia or Kazakhstan.
Furthermore, if the Turks are allowed to sell washing machines directly to St. Petersburg, some suspect that others are doing so indirectly. How else has the export of refrigerators from the EU to Kazakhstan tripled?
Corriere della Sera has shown his surprise because Turkey, with a sinking lira, imports 42% more Italian brands than a year ago. On a more fizzy note, a famous soft drink that also boasts of having cut with Russia, would have multiplied the production of its two plants in Kazakhstan.
There are other countries to remove. At the last construction fair in Istanbul there were more Indian companies than ever, keeping an eye on the many Russian visitors.
For their part, Turkish household appliance and clothing brands are striving to occupy the ground vacated by their Western competitors. In some shopping centers in Moscow, up to 90% of the franchises closed. Something used by Flo –Turkish footwear chain– to take over more than a hundred Reebok stores.
In any case, Turkey is fast becoming an indispensable economic partner for Moscow. Until now, the dependency circulated in only one direction, due to imports of Russian gas (40%, which since this week is partially paid in rubles) and Russian oil (25%). Turkey can still gain room for maneuver if the Turkstream gas pipeline, inaugurated two years ago, obtains part of the flow destined for the sabotaged Nordstream for export, as Vladimir Putin proposes.
A year ago, his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan was trying to sell the good side of the collapse of the lira, which was to benefit the tourism and export sectors. What not even he could foresee is the early conversion of Turkey, in addition, into a re-exporting power.
