If someone raised the possibility of Donald Trump winning at the end of December 2015, less than a year before the presidential elections in the United States, the reaction was more of collective laughter. “How is that clown going to win?” Many responded before entering the primary stretch.
He was The Don and he was portrayed on the covers with a clown nose. His personal image, especially in New York, his city, was that of a rude, classless guy, rejected by millionaires like him, but more sophisticated. In short, what is called unpresentable. Even in the interested party’s own circle it was recognized that, as on other occasions when he had expressed his presidential interests, he was only seeking to make a propaganda point.
There is no need to remember what happened. The consequences are more than palpable. Not only did he win, first the Republican nomination and then the White House, but he marked a radical change of direction with global repercussions.
His legacy is more than present in the world. Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Viktor Orbán (Hungary), Javier Milei (Argentina), Geert Wilders (Netherlands), Giorgia Meloni (Italy) or Santiago Abascal (Spain) are some names that emerged in their wake and that explain the mimetic effect on the international far-right scene.
The truth and facts no longer matter. Now it’s alternate reality and conspiracy theories.
Despite the electoral disaster of November 2020 and its coup attempt on January 6, 2021, the answer today to that question from 2015, also with less than a year left until the 2024 elections, no longer causes laughter. Rather, it freezes the facial expressions of liberals, on the part of independent voters and quite a few moderate Republicans, due to the astonishment that a candidate with a string of criminal charges who does not hide that he wants to be a “dictator” is the favorite, although he clarifies that only the first day, and make revenge the main content of your next government.
This time the answer is yes. Barring a judicial accident, increasingly unlikely due to the possible delay of his trials, Trump has numbers to win in 2024.
This is indicated by the great advantage he has over his two main Republican opponents (Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis), about fifty points just half a month before the start of the campaign in the Iowa caucus. And it is shown by the polls in key states ( Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina or Pennsylvania), where he leads against President Joe Biden, and in the direct confrontation between the two on a national scale, which surpasses or is on par with his successor.
Biden also has many options. The economy is getting better and better, the issue of abortion weighs, the fear of the autocrat unifies and the polls may be as premature as those of 2015-2016, where Trump lacked options at this point of the electoral warm-up and after, or in the 2020 against the current president.
The Trump phenomenon surprised then and continues to surprise. Beyond clinging to his big lie that the elections were stolen from him, he does not hide his tricks and increasingly uses the imagery of the extreme right in Europe in the 1930s of the last century.
“I promise that we will eliminate the communists, the Marxists, the fascists and the thugs of the radical left who live like vermin within the confines of our country,” he shouted in one of his speeches. The term vermin caused consternation for being taken from Adolf Hitler.
As scholars point out, the most diabolical aspect of his postmodern authoritarian abilities is his way of winking at his darkest intentions. His friend Sean Hannity, a Fox star, tried in an interview to get Trump to back down and break with the “Putinesque” image of him. But he got her to come out with his promise to be dictator for a while. He felt so satisfied that he has been using that expression in political events.
The most alarming thing is the loyalty of his voters or conservative legislators, who downplay Trump’s dictatorial instincts. He dominates the game with an iron fist. Those who are not with him are condemned to ostracism.
That Trump has many options in 2024 is palpable in the psychosis installed in the country. The “end of the year of panic”, as some call that sound of alerts.
“America thirsts for authoritarianism,” said Charles Blow in The New York Times to criticize this complacency. Only 10% of Americans believe democracy works very well.
This month The Atlantic magazine published an entire issue, with 24 articles, explaining why a second term would be much worse than the first.
Liz Cheney, a born Republican, whose vice president father instigated the invasion of Iraq and who herself supported him, just as she conspired with Trump in the lie that President Obama was illegitimate because he was born in Africa, saw the light with the insurrection on January 6, 2021. In his recent book, Oath and honor, he lamented that “the country is sleepwalking towards dictatorship.” The narcotic is called Trump.
Among others, historian Robert Kagan expressed another stern call for attention and the urgency to act in an essay published by The Washington Post. “Let’s stop getting our hopes up and face the harsh reality. There is a clear path to dictatorship in the United States and it is getting shorter,” he cried.
Given the pessimism generated, Kagan made a second reflection to stop Trump. He suggested nominating Nikki Haley as a third-party candidate. This will allow Republicans to rely on one of their own, weaken Trump and give victory to Biden without voting for Biden.
“Kagan’s dictatorship (…) is an attempt to scare Americans and distract them from Biden’s failures and weaknesses, but above all, it exudes the fear that a second Trump administration will be more successful than the previous one in implementing their agenda to undo progressive policies,” replied Fred Fleitz, who briefly served in the Trump administration, on the American Greatness website.
“When Trump, and a good number of his observers, warned in 2020 that he would never concede defeat, many dismissed this as the kind of political hyperbole that fades away as soon as the votes are counted,” Susan Glasser weighed in The New Yorker. , to set the alarm. “When Trump says, openly and clearly, extreme and unconstitutional things he plans to do, listen. Panic is not a negotiation tactic, it is a warning that one risks ignoring,” she reiterated.
What if Trump loses? In the response, according to analysts, there are also reasons for fear.
