The current process of climate change due to the greenhouse effect caused by activity “is undeniable, there is no room for denial” and is scientifically supported by atmospheric and environmental data. And in that context, Jorge Olcina, professor of Regional Geographic Analysis at the University of Alicante, stated this morning, “the city of Alicante is a hot spot, within the Spanish Mediterranean coast, one of the territories that is most experiencing the effects of the current climate warming process.
Olcina, who directs the Aguas de Alicante Chair on Climate Change of the UA, has presented at the Alicante Water Museum the first report on climate change and water management in the city carried out by that institution. Relevant data emerge from it, such as that average temperatures today are 1ºC higher than in the 1940s, with a greater increase detected since the 1980s. And the rise in minimum night temperatures, which have increased in 1.5ºC.
In fact, the number of tropical nights – those in which the minimum does not drop below 20 degrees – has multiplied by 4, from the 70s to the present. If in the 70s, an average of 15 tropical nights were recorded annually, in the last decade 80 have been recorded.
Precipitation shows, however, a more irregular behavior. In general, there is a downward trend in the annual amount from 1990 to today. In the entire series analyzed (1940-2020), the average annual precipitation has gone from 348 l/m2 in the decade of the 1940s to 293 l/m2 in the decade 2010-20. This means that in 80 years, on average, 50 l/m2 have been lost annually. Therefore, in Alicante it rains less and it does so more irregularly and concentrated over time.
For its part, the wind, which is a climatic element that is difficult to analyze in its records and future evolution, shows a downward trend in its average speed. This fact is related to the increase in days of “barometric swamp” and the loss of intensity of the sea breeze that has been recorded significantly since the nineties of the last century.
The sea water temperature off the coast of Alicante shows a clear increasing trend from the 80s of the last century to the present. With data from the CEAM (Center for Mediterranean Environmental Studies), it is estimated that this increase has reached 1.5ºC in 2023. Two meteorological processes are related to this maritime event: a greater number of tropical nights and a greater irregularity and intensification of the precipitation.
Regarding long-term forecasts, the projections of the official climate models for Alicante point out the following aspects: increase in the maximum average temperature towards 2100 (4-5ºC in the trend emissions scenarios); increase in warm days (between 20% and 60% in 2100 depending on favorable and less favorable emissions scenarios).
Greater irregularity in rainfall and a downward trend in annual totals are also expected (-15 to -20% towards 2100 in emissions trend models). And fewer days with rain (-10 to -15 days per year by 2100 in the trend emissions scenarios).
