Yesterday, Transnistria did not take the step suggested by rumors of asking Moscow to incorporate the small territory split from Moldova into Russia in 1992. The congress of 600 deputies of the Moldovan Republic of Transnistria – which is not recognized by any country – was limited to ask Russia for “measures to protect Transnistria in the face of increasing pressure from Moldova.” These pressures translate into an “economic war,” according to the Transnistrians. At the beginning of the year, the Moldovan government canceled customs benefits to Transnistria, which allowed the enclave to export to Europe through Moldova without paying duties and as if its products were Moldovan. These privileges could be understood in two ways: as a policy to favor reunification or simply as a corrupt business. The aforementioned pressures make sense in the pro-European path of President Maia Sandu.
Transnistria has so far held half a dozen independence referendums, the last in 2006, but none have been recognized even by Moscow. Geography also plays against a union with Russia, since the neighboring country is none other than Ukraine. The presence of a few thousand Russian soldiers since the civil war of the 1990s is also not significant.
For most observers, Moscow has no major interest in that strip on the left bank of the Dniester River but in regaining its influence in Moldova, which will hold presidential elections at the end of the year as well as a referendum on membership in the EU. To change the situation, the pro-Russians would have to govern in Moldova again, but it is still unknown which candidate the Kremlin would support.
