The Gaza war will see the first ceasefire after seven devastating weeks, in which 14,128 people, most of them women and children, have lost their lives due to Israeli bombings and attacks in the Palestinian enclave, while Israel has 70 soldier casualties. . Mediated by Qatar, the United States and Egypt, Israel and Hamas agreed to a four-day cessation of hostilities in exchange for the release of 50 hostages who were taken captive by Palestinian militias in the October 7 massacre, in which Nearly 1,200 people died and another 240 were kidnapped in southern Israel.
Here are the main details of the agreement that are known so far and some of its consequences:
A four-day pause in fighting will be announced in the next 24 hours. In that phase, Hamas will release 50 hostages from Gaza, almost all of them women or children (also elderly men or men with foreign nationality). It will be done through the Rafah crossing that leads to Egypt, in four batches: twelve kidnapped people will be released each day starting this Thursday. For its part, Israel will release 150 Palestinian prisoners who have not been convicted of blood crimes.
If the first phase of the agreement goes ahead without a hitch, the pause in fighting will be extended by one day for every 10 hostages released to a maximum of ten days. In exchange, Israel will release “up to” another 150 Palestinian detainees, if “up to” another 50 hostages are released from Gaza. Israel has published a list of 300 Palestinians who could be freed in total; the majority are male adolescents.
The agreement also contemplates the entry into the strip, including the northern part, of between 100 and 300 trucks with food and medical aid, as well as fuel. The Red Cross will be able to provide medical care to the hostages of the Palestinian militias who remain in the strip, according to the Haaretz newspaper.
The Israeli army undertakes not to fly over the south of the enclave with drones and planes during the four days that the truce is in force and for six hours a day over the north of Gaza, the epicenter of the fighting, to allow Hamas to locate hostages who are being held. They are held by other armed groups, such as Islamic Jihad, which also supported the agreement. Israeli troops will stop firing, while Hamas and Jihad militants are expected to refrain from firing rockets into Israel.
According to the list published by Israel’s Justice Ministry, prisoners set to be released include many teenagers detained during the wave of Israeli violence and raids in the occupied West Bank in 2022 and 2023. Most are charged of crimes such as throwing stones or disturbing public order. Israel currently holds nearly 7,000 Palestinians accused or convicted of security crimes. Israeli justice punishes throwing stones with up to 20 years in prison.
Israel has been under intense pressure from the families of the hostages who are desperate to see how the ground incursion into Gaza that began at the end of October has only served to bring home one soldier. The tone of the last meeting with the war cabinet on Monday was fiery. From outside, international pressure has also been growing in response to the increasingly disastrous humanitarian situation, including with a UN Security Council resolution (which Israel refused to comply with). The Israeli blockade, invasion and bombings have caused shortages of food, water, fuel and medicine, as well as displaced 1.7 million people. Only 10 of the 36 hospitals are functioning.
As for Hamas, the Islamist group may be interested in a pause in hostilities to strategize, change positions or even regroup, because it has lost control of large areas of northern Gaza. According to Tel Aviv, the Israeli army has rendered 10 of Hamas’ 24 battalions inoperative.
Israel, which has made destroying Hamas and saving captives its war goals, is expected to pick up where it left off once the four days end. In fact, Israeli Prime Minister Beniamin Netanyahu made it clear that the agreement does not mean the end of this war: “We will not stop after the ceasefire.” Instead, he said the pause will allow the military to prepare for continued fighting and will not harm its war effort. Your troops will stay inside.
Once the ceasefire ends, airstrikes are likely to resume and troops will continue their advance across northern Gaza before their expected push south sometime soon.
As already mentioned, the agreement also appears to strengthen Hamas. Therefore, the group is likely to take advantage of the option of extending the ceasefire for a few more days. It may try to increase its demands, under the assumption that Israel can make more concessions to free more hostages. The pressure from the families of the remaining hostages will continue, along with requests for a definitive ceasefire from the international community.
