Hardly anyone disputes that the independence process has left deep emotional wounds in Catalan society. The question is to what extent and in what specific aspects affective polarization has grown in Catalonia. In other words, how have the feelings of sympathy and rejection among the Catalans evolved and what other effects has the process begun a decade ago had? A study by the ICPS, carried out by the professor of the Department of Political Science at the UAB, Lucía Medina, reveals that the procés has led to an increase in aversion towards politics and, at the same time, a significant increase in polarization –and even in “visceral rejection” – between supporters and opponents of independence.
However, the study – elaborated from the exploitation of the ICPS surveys between 1995 and 2021 – detects other equally disturbing phenomena. For example, “the irruption of the independence issue led to an increase and politicization of differences around the identity” of citizens. And, above all, the “climate of high affective polarization” impacted “more negatively on emotionally moderate people” and with “a more lukewarm emotional bond towards the different parties.” This drift – that “less polarized people” end up developing “more negative feelings” towards politics in a climate of conflict – outlines the possibility of a gradual deterioration of democratic coexistence, governability or institutional legitimacy.
In this sense, “interest in politics” was initially a dominant feeling among the different groups of Catalan voters. Between 2003 and 2004, for example, it reached 37% and remained above 25% for a decade. But “it did not increase during the procés” and, as of 2016 –“when the difficulties of the sovereignist challenge are confirmed”–, that interest “begins a downward trend”. Parallel to the decline in interest in politics, “mistrust, irritation and indifference are the emotions” that grow the most. For example, mistrust went from reaching 12.4% of voters in 2008 to more than 28% in 2013, and to close to 34% in 2018.
This rise in negative feelings towards politics initially affected voters opposed to independence to a greater extent, and seemed to be linked both to the great recession that broke out in 2008 and to the radicalization of the independence process itself. In contrast, among pro-independence sympathizers, “the dominance of positive sentiments toward politics” lasted longer and only began to decline to the benefit of negative perceptions after the failed attempt to declare independence in 2017. Even so, the balance of negative sentiments toward politics continues to be greater among those opposed to secession. In fact, among supporters of independence “the percentage of people who express positive feelings is ten points higher.”
Regarding the “growing distance between sympathizers of parties in favor of and against independence”, as a factor in the increase in political polarization, the study confirms that “it coincides with the start of the procés in 2012 and reaches its peak in the 2016”, when it reaches the highest score. In other words, by “placing the territorial issue at the center of the dispute”, there is a hardening of the positions for or against secession.
In this sense, the indicators of the successive polls reveal that “the great increase” registered in the affective bias of the independentistas as a bloc as of 2012 would show that this “escalation did not occur as a result of the Constitutional Court ruling on the Statute , but it had its origin in the independence turn of CiU” and in the strategies of “other influential political actors”. To this, it should be added that the affective polarization between blocs reached its peak in 2017 and that the level of “polarization between the independentist blocs is always greater than that of the non-independentist ones.” The latter are much more divided on the status of Catalonia in Spain and also ideologically, and only “became intensely polarized in 2017”, when the threat of independence “became effective”.
Finally, and in relation to the “individual affective polarization” during the procés, the “bias is especially high” among people “who feel only Catalan”, among those who consider themselves “only or predominantly Spanish”, among those ” who are located on the right” (the followers of the PP and Ciudadanos) and “among the supporters of independence”. Likewise, the “affective bias is lower among young people and higher among adults and, above all, among the oldest”.
