Today (9pm) the second finalist of this edition of the Champions League will be decided. Two colossi face to face. Madrid are slightly favorites to play at home, but we should never underestimate the competitive power of Bayern Munich. And the board will have a lot to say. Here my keys for this great meeting:
After Carlo Ancelotti resolved the goalkeeping question in yesterday’s press conference by confirming Lunin’s continuity, the only unknown in the Real Madrid eleven is who will accompany Rudiger as a centre-back. In the first leg, the Madrid coach opted for Nacho, but ended the match with Tchuaméni as center back. So the issue will be between those two options or a third that is much less likely, an unlikely entry by Militao. All in all, the Rudiger-Tchuaméni couple is the most likely due to the match context. Be that as it may, the face to face between the pair of Madrid centre-backs and Harry Kane will mark a good part of the tie. Also in the defensive axis lies one of the few enigmas in Bayern where De Ligt could enter in the place of Kim Ming Jae who did not like Vinícius’ brand.
After verifying last week that neither team is uncomfortable giving up the initiative of the game to the rival to create transitions, the first tactical issue has to do with the game plan of each of the teams. Or what is the same, at what height both teams will want to play. A priori, it has to be Madrid who takes the initiative of the match, but it is also true that the reactive version works very well for Ancelotti’s team. The profile of Vinícius, Rodrygo and company makes them the best team on the counterattack. We will see who imposes what he wants and which team best adapts to the rival’s intentions.
He went unnoticed in the first leg (61 interventions and no shots) but the scenario for today will be completely different for Bellingham. Because, a priori, Madrid will be closer to the area and because, with the presence of Carvajal and a higher positioning of the full-backs (they were low at the Allianz), the white team will take more centers (only ten in the first leg). An action in which he is very good since he reads well the areas where he can appear from behind. Furthermore, he is a very smart player on the field, one of those who uses match rereadings well to improve his performance. That is to say, he will change certain things about his behavior to try to be, this time, important.
In the first leg, Bayern did damage when Tuchel changed the ends of the 4-2-3-1 to a changed leg as usual and not inside as in the initial part of the game. But it changed because of the success of the completion and not because the plan didn’t work. Because the first 15 minutes were dominated and fluid by the German team. So today we can see either of the two options or both in different sections of matches. Interesting to see if the German coach tries to surprise again with this variation and how Madrid adjusts to it.
Another cardinal point of the clash. In the first leg, Bayern’s midfield (Goretzka-Laimer-Muller) started by supporting Toni Kroos well. But as usual, the German ended up finding the areas to receive, moving away from the zone of influence and being important again. He ended up overcoming the German plot to play a fantastic game with a lot of weight in the game. Madrid’s improvement coincided with its increase in participation. With a total of 82 in 76 minutes, he was the field player with the most passes. By the way, 79 of the 82 were good (a splendid record). And his assist to Vinícius at 0-1 was magnificent. In his place came Luka Modric who was also excellent. A formula that is working very well for Ancelotti throughout the course and that today, he will surely repeat. If the two are so decisive again, Madrid will have a good chance of being in the final. If Bayern manages, this time, to minimize them, it will be the opposite.
