When Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared in his last video, grotesquely disguised in military gear over a desert landscape and saying that it was 52 degrees, it made you think of two things: that he was not in the Sahel, but in front of a movie chroma at Aurum studios , of which he was a co-owner, and who intended to head to Niger, where Russian flags are displayed by many supporters of the coup, including some from the Wagner Group.
Prigozhin, who is said to have had direct relationships with several African leaders, probably aspired to be an imitation of Tiny Rowland, the pirate British mining entrepreneur who for decades made and unmade various African countries. Only more brutal and with the support of the Russian state.
We tend to describe members of the Wagner Private Military Group or company as mercenaries. It is a very relative term. We called the Blackwaters (today, Academi), of ill-fated memory in Iraq and Afghanistan, contractors following the euphemistic American term. The Wagners are something similar, ex-military who serve the State, or interests that coincide with it. In fact, they were born under the wing of Russian military intelligence, and between May 2022 and May 2023 they cost a billion euros to the public treasury, the Kremlin admitted.
Although the Wagners emerged with the war in Donbass, in 2014, to support the pro-Russian rebels, they made themselves known publicly in Syria, when they attributed the leadership of the recapture of the city of Palmyra from the hands of the Islamic State in 2017 They soon appear in Libya, after the self-styled Marshal Khalifa Hafter asks Moscow for help in fighting the government in Tripoli. The Wagners launch drone attacks in this country for the first time, but they will not take the capital leading the rebel troops. At the same time, Moscow takes advantage of the Western hesitation in pardoning the plague-ridden Omar al Bashir in Sudan and finally lifting sanctions on the country, to offer weapons and security services in exchange for a naval base in the Red Sea and mining concessions, an agreement that would be maintained. with the military junta that would end up overthrowing Al Bashir.
Always with the opportunistic vision of taking advantage of gaps, Russia brought the Wagners to the Central African Republic at the end of 2017 in the face of the passivity of France, which shifted its military operations to the Sahel to combat jihadism. The same would happen in Mali when France and the UN mission withdraw in 2022. Russia sells security, military advice and combat strength. And not only to coup juntas: in the Central African Republic he defends the constitutional order. Thus, Fidele Gouandjika, adviser to President Touadéra, lamented Prigozhin’s death with “great sadness” because his men “helped save democracy”.
The logical destination now would have to be Niger, the main source of the uranium that France consumes. Just the neighboring country to the north, Libya, received a visit one day before the Prigozhin plane crash. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov (a man who was with Prigozhin in Rostov-on-Don when he led his revolt there in June) assured Marshal Hafter in Benghazi that the Wagners would remain in the country, but under control of Moscow with a new commander. This was stated yesterday by the Reuters agency, noting that there have been reports that the Kremlin has created alternative companies to take over Wagner’s operations.
On July 15, Putin himself announced that a certain Andrei Troshev, alias Canoso, would take over Wagner. Troshev, born in St. Petersburg 70 years ago and a retired colonel, veteran of Afghanistan, was chief of staff in the group’s campaign in Syria and the hero of Palmyra. Nothing has come out about him, but he was certainly not on the plane with Dimitri Utkin, the group’s military chief; Valeri Chekalov, head of logistics, and other members of Wagner’s leadership.
Putin issued an order late Friday that Wagner members must swear allegiance to the Russian state. Not only them but also those of other irregular formations fighting in Ukraine. It must be remembered that all these organizations are illegal in Russia. It was precisely the Russian president’s demand that the “musicians” – as they call themselves – submit to the Ministry of Defense that triggered the maximum tension with Prigozhin. Those stationed in Africa were exempt from that requirement. It was not clear if the order will affect them as well, nor if those who remain in Belarus – perhaps 4,000 – will return to Ukraine if they swear allegiance (they have been protesting because they are cheap), but what is certain is that the future of the Wagners, probably with other names, passes through Africa.
