The ultimatum launched against the coup junta in Niger expired yesterday without an armed intervention by neighboring countries to restore the ousted president Mohamed Bazoum to power.
From Niamey, the Nigerian capital, came news of relative calm. Some 30,000 supporters of the coup leaders gathered in a stadium. The exact time when the deadline given by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for the military junta to back down was not known. Cedeao’s credibility is at stake. Among them, relevant voices very skeptical about the use of force arose. The most important was that of the Nigerian Senate, which in theory should give the green light to the participation of its troops. The opposition of Nigeria, the great regional power – with an estimated population of 230 million inhabitants – fears that an operation in neighboring Niger, with which there is a common border of 1,500 kilometers, could have serious consequences. There are very close ethnic and cultural ties between the two countries. Also in Senegal there were warning signs from the opposition.
The Nigerian troop contest is considered essential to reverse the situation in Niamey. Although Senegal, the Ivory Coast and Benin have shown their willingness to participate, they are further away and sending soldiers poses serious logistical problems.
The French government has given its full support to the ECOWAS firmness initiative, but remains silent about its eventual collaboration. The experts quoted by the French press believe that French and American support will be crucial if the intervention takes place, even more so if it is a lightning action to free Bazoum and throw out the coup plotters. All scenarios are risky, given the complicity of Mali and Burkina Faso with Niamey and the presence of thousands of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group in the region.
