“The energy transition is one of the main levers to increase our energy self-sufficiency, reduce emissions and, in addition, it represents a unique opportunity to be at the forefront of technologies and promote industrial development.” This phrase or one with very similar words is repeated almost in every public appearance by the leaders of the large energy companies in Spain, the spokespersons for industrial sectors and, of course, the visible heads of the Government from President Pedro Sánchez to the Minister for the Energy Transition, Teresa Ribera, and even some opposition leaders.
A line that was not so easy to follow in 2018 when Sánchez arrived at Moncloa, renewed the name of the then Ministry of Energy, eliminated the sun tax and set the first objectives for Spain to stop being a country dependent on fossil fuels. such as coal, oil or gas to boost the then scarce renewables. The effort has paid off. In 2023, renewable energy generation injected 134,315 gigawatt hours and covered 54.9% of the demand of the entire electrical system throughout Spain. A historic milestone.
In the last four years, the implementation of renewable energies in the national electrical system has grown by 21,995 MW, 40%, mainly thanks to photovoltaic solar, which saw its power almost triple, with 16,803 MW more (192.1% ). Wind power rose 5,125 MW, 20% more. Even self-consumption is no longer something exclusive to a few, and companies and families already see it as a profitable alternative. At the end of 2023 there was already 6,955 MW of installed power for self-consumption.
It’s just the beginning of a great dream. For the first time in the history of industrial revolutions, Spain has the strategic natural resources (sun, wind and territory) to become a relevant actor. “We have renewable resources and, no less important, the necessary conditions in the territory to be able to develop these new energies. We are facing a unique opportunity to take advantage of a competitive advantage, such as our natural resources, to produce cheap and sustainable energy that allows us to attract industry. We must export energy, but also competitive finished products, to have cheaper and more sustainable energy locally,” explains Oliverio Álvarez, partner responsible for the Energy sector.
According to the latest Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (Pniec), whose latest review is in draft mode in Brussels waiting to receive approval before June, Spain must contribute an additional investment of 294,000 million euros to advance this goal.
In 2030, 81% of electricity must be generated with renewable energy, mainly photovoltaic and wind. An export volume of 63,010 gigawatt hours (GWh) is established, compared to the 11,859 that were exported in 2019, the last year considered “normal” without a pandemic, energy crisis, or wars that could distort prices. As an example, these 63,010 GWh represent 71% of all the electricity sent to France in the last 33 years.
Spain, like Europe, has stepped on the accelerator of this energy transition both out of conviction and obligation. The war in Ukraine and the gas supply cuts with that country have revealed a problem that had not been addressed or at least acted upon until that moment: Europe must guarantee the security of energy supply without depending excessively on third parties. countries as he did from Russia.
But if the banner with the goal set can be seen on the horizon, what is not so clear is where to proceed on the tortuous route that leads to it. While France continues with the banner of nuclear energy as the basis of its system, Germany has had to return to burning coal after closing its nuclear plants and being deprived of Russian gas, while seeking to develop sufficient renewables and hydrogen. Renewable gases and synthetic fuels have a prominent place in their decarbonization strategies.
In Spain the big bet is electrification. In 2035, if the plans are fulfilled, the last nuclear plant in the country, the one located in Trillo, will close. The production of renewable gases, although it is increasing, is very far from the objectives of electrification. What it will not be possible to separate from will be gas. The Pniec establishes that the current 26,612 MW installed will continue to be active that year. “It is the most flexible source of energy production for an environment as unstable as renewable production. It will be necessary until 2030. In a broader scenario, by 2035, there will have been time for battery storage to develop. But the problem in the short and medium term is prices. The projects have been stopped,” says Christina Rentell, Energy specialist for Iberia at the consulting firm Aurora Energy Research.
Green hydrogen produced with electrolyzers will be responsible for driving the final leg of the system transformation. and will allow it to be produced at the cheapest prices in Europe.
Although “in order to carry out a widespread deployment (the objective is to produce 4 million tons) we need to advance further on the cost reduction curve,” recalls Oliverio Álvarez.
This hydrogen will be part of the 11 GW planned to store energy (batteries, green hydrogen and pumping dams) and the way to dispose of surplus production that has already begun to be a problem. “A lot of renewable energy has been put into the system but demand has not been boosted to the same extent. The electric car is not convincing, neither are heat pumps, nor is the industry committed to changing its energy sources. Without concrete demand it is difficult for projects to come to fruition. “Is it normal for electricity to have a VAT of 21% in this context?” reflects Pedro Fresco, former General Director of Ecological Transition of the Government of the Generalitat Valenciana and author of the book The New Green Order.
Their feeling is the same as that conveyed by large and medium-sized energy companies in the country. “Until there is visibility in prices, this does not work,” say senior executives in the sector. In the last year, renewables have managed to cover all demand and the price set has been zero. “This can not go on like this. The Government must guarantee a pricing system that encourages investment. Whether it be long-term plans, auctions.” they claim. “Both demand and network capacity are problems that will be solved over time. Perhaps meeting the 2030 milestones will not be possible that year, but I am convinced that it will be possible in 2035 and there is no doubt that the challenges in 2050 will have been achieved,” he assures. Christina Rentell. Pedro Fresco expresses himself along the same lines. “The Pniec is a flexible document that adapts. The important thing is to move forward and it is clear that there is no turning back,” says Fresco.
