On the border between Poland and Lithuania, between lakes, plains and forests ideal for excursions and relaxation, there is a strip of territory that international military strategists consider NATO’s weakest point. It is the so-called Suwalki corridor – which takes its name from the Polish town of the same name –, some 64 kilometers on the border between the two countries that culminates at both ends in a triple border with enemy territory: the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad in the north. and Belarus in the south.
Since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and while the war continues and Russia has the Belarusian Alexander Lukashenko as an ally, this area has become a focus of concern for experts who analyze maps and assess risks.
Due to its location, it is the most vulnerable place on the eastern flank of the Atlantic Alliance because, if attacked, the land connection between Poland and the Baltic countries would be truncated. In summer, when Wagner’s Russian mercenaries swarmed through Minsk territories, the Polish Government – ??which, with arguments of containing the migratory crisis, had already built fences on the borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus – reinforced the military presence in the Suwalki area.
“I am often asked if we are afraid, and I answer that we feel safe here; since we are members of the Atlantic Alliance, we are not afraid, because NATO will defend every centimeter of Polish land,” says Wojciech Drazba, editor of the Suwalki24 news portal. The editorial office and office of this local media is located in the heart of Suwalki, which with its 69,000 inhabitants is an important center in this sparsely populated area with very cold winters. “It doesn’t matter if you live in Suwalki, Barcelona or New York; If there were a total war between Russia and NATO, we would all be threatened –Drazba argues–. But that won’t happen, because Russia is too weak.”
Suwalki is about thirty kilometers from the point where the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Kaliningrad meet, marked on Polish soil by a monolith next to which schoolchildren and tourists used to take photos. Now there is a fence and you can’t go through; You have to see from a distance that pale memory of when relations between the West and Russia were officially cordial.
Until a few years ago, residents on both sides of the border between Poland and Kaliningrad could cross it without a visa to trade. That ended in 2016, two years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Furthermore, since the start of the war in Ukraine, the border with Belarus has been practically closed. “Cooperation between companies from Suwalki and companies from Kaliningrad and Belarus has ended, and the economy suffers; No new factories are opened nor new investors arrive,” says journalist Drazba.
The old town of Suwalki is quiet. In front of the park, the neoclassical St. Alexander Co-Cathedral, built at the beginning of the 19th century, and the statue of Marshal Jozef Pilsudski, hero of independence against the Russians and first president of Poland in the interwar period, stand out. There is an atmosphere of remoteness from Warsaw and the centers of power.
Being a border town usually implies changes of lord and flag. At the District Museum, a permanent historical exhibition shows how the city passed hands between the 14th and 20th centuries. “Suwalki has belonged to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Prussia and Russia, and during the two world wars it suffered enormous damage caused by the German and Soviet occupation,” explains Krzysztof Sklodowski, head of the department. Museum History–. After World War II, the region witnessed severe repression by the Soviet and Polish communist governments. Surely in some families the memory of those events remains and can cause anguish; But, of course, I cannot speak on behalf of everyone about that.”
In August, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki met in the Suwalki Corridor to discuss security. On the Polish side there is a US-led multinational NATO battalion, plus a Polish mechanized division, and another similar Polish unit further south. On the Lithuanian side, apart from its army, there is another multinational NATO battalion, this one led by Germany. Already last year, the mayor of Suwalki made a list of buildings that could be used as air raid shelters.
“Lately, the Polish Government has increased the number of military units stationed in the region to reinforce the defense, and many young people have recently enlisted in military service,” says historian Sklodowski. There is hardly any sense of real threat, but I wouldn’t say there isn’t any at all; “We have noticed a decrease in both tourists and investors.”
Here, in fact, the strategic label is lamented for these side effects. “The Suwalki Corridor concept is detrimental to the region’s inhabitants,” sighs editor Wojciech Drazba. First we had to deal with the Covid pandemic, which stopped tourism, and then came the war in Ukraine, which also affects tourism; we have been left with 8% tourism.”
This corner of Europe requires a puzzle of balances and compromises. Only two roads and one railway link Poland and Lithuania through the Suwalki Corridor. On the other hand, despite the war in Ukraine, and within the framework of EU decisions, Lithuania allows partial transit of passenger and freight trains from Belarus to Kaliningrad.
“After Finland joined NATO last April, Sweden’s future accession will greatly change the situation in the Baltic countries and the Suwalki Corridor,” says Michal Baranowski, director of the Warsaw office of the American think tank. German Marshall Fund. “The Baltic Sea will practically become a NATO lake and then Kaliningrad will be the isolated territory,” Baranowski continues. From the perspective of the Atlantic Alliance, the balance around the Suwalki corridor is therefore changing, although it remains a very delicate place.” For Poland, the border with Belarus is always key, and hence the powerful military reinforcement.
