Spain is warily monitoring the military rearmament in which Morocco is immersed with very advanced technology thanks to the support of the United States and Israel. The Alawite kingdom, which will allocate 9% of its GDP to defense spending next year, is in the midst of an arms race with Algeria, which has also skyrocketed its military investment. And this, among the Spanish military leadership, is generating some concern. On the one hand, there is uncertainty about the levels of hostility that the conflict between Rabat and Algiers may reach. But on the other hand, as military sources warn, Moroccan rearmament could mean – not in the short or medium term – “a challenge for the territorial integrity of Spain.”
In a context marked by the escalation of tension with Algeria, Morocco has increased by 4.1% the item in the 2024 budget that is intended “to acquire and maintain equipment for the Armed Forces and support the development of the Defense industry. ”, which will reach 124,776 million dirhams (11,300 million euros), almost 10% of its GDP. Spain allocated 1.09% of its GDP to military spending during 2022. The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, committed to NATO to raise it to 2% before 2029.
Despite these data, today Spain’s military muscle is still much superior to that of the neighboring country on the southern shore. But the margin will narrow in the coming years, since Morocco has set 2030 as the date to become a military power. Experts are clear that the Alawite regime is doing its homework. It has opted to update its fleet of F-16 fighter jets, in addition to acquiring AGM154C guided missiles, with a target range of 130 kilometers. It has also purchased Himars missile launcher systems and more than a hundred surface-to-surface missiles with up to 305 kilometers of range. All this by diversifying purchases: the United States, China, the United Kingdom or Turkey.
But also Israel, a strategic partner of the kingdom of Mohamed VI, through the Abraham agreements. A binomial that also keeps the diplomatic sphere in Spain on alert. The Moroccan Royal Armed Forces (FAR) will soon receive a shipment of SPY-X drones, manufactured by the Israeli company Bluebird Aero Systems. They are the so-called kamikaze drones, which sources in the arms sector describe as “one of the latest jewels of the industry.” In addition, the company Elbit Systems, the largest Israeli manufacturer of defense systems, will open two factories in Morocco, as announced in June. A month later Israel recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.
The Department of National Security does not lose detail of every step that Morocco takes in its arms race, at a time when it is planning the succession – more or less close – of Mohamed VI in favor of his first-born son, Prince Hassan. The heir is gradually receiving military command and the machinery is running at full speed to reinforce his image in the Moroccan army.
Morocco’s great military challenge is being fought in Western Sahara. The subsequent scenario is the one that generates great concern among the Spanish military commanders. As the Institute of Security and Culture – a think tank specialized in Defense – recalls, “we must not forget that part of the Moroccan mentality and strategic culture dreams of following an agenda of territorial expansion in line with the old concept of the “Greater Morocco.” ”: among other implications, this implies controlling the squares of Ceuta and Melilla.”
After the change that the Government made in March 2022 regarding the position of the Sahara, diplomatic relations with Rabat have not been involved in major controversies. Rabat continues to be, according to ministerial sources, “a reliable partner” with which “Spain needs to have good relations.”
