The blowing up of the hydroelectric power plant and part of the Kakhovka dam, on the Dnieper River, could go down in Ukrainian history as one of the most senseless military operations, in addition to constituting –according to the Geneva Convention– a war crime.
The floodgates of the Nová Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper, about 30 meters high and 3.2 kilometers from end to end, were already damaged and overflowing with water, but the explosion registered on Monday night at the plant caused a flood of water that raised the river level by 11 meters.
According to satellite images, the break in the wall is about 600 meters wide. The fact that it is an earthen dam and not concrete, and that the terrain is flat, prevented an even more dramatic effect.
With the passing of the hours, some 80 towns downriver were affected by the flood, 24 of them practically flooded. The Ukrainian authorities evacuated some 17,000 people, mainly in half a dozen towns closest to the dam. Another 25,000 people were affected on the left – or south – bank of the Dnieper, occupied by the Russian army, where the evacuations were also carried out.
Again, Kyiv and Moscow crossed accusations over the destruction of this infrastructure which, in addition to denying farmland, inhabited cores and the ecosystem of the Dnieper estuary, endangers the upstream Zaporiyia nuclear power plant. There were already these signs in October 2022, when Ukrainian troops advanced on Jerson.
Now, Kyiv accuses Russia of planting explosives, since it occupies the plant – which it disconnected from the Ukrainian network – and Moscow accuses Ukraine of bombing it. Both have called for international condemnation. Meanwhile, White House Homeland Security spokesman John Kirby commented that the United States is working with the Ukrainians to investigate. “We cannot say conclusively at this time what happened,†he stated.
But who could benefit from this disaster?
A model developed by a Swedish hydrological engineering company –Dämningsverket– in the event of a dam failure indicated that the most flooded territories would be those on the south bank of the Dnieper, while on the north bank a part of the flow would be absorbed by the Inhulets river, and another by the Pivdenni Buh, which passes through Mikolaiv. In this sense, the statements of the Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister, Hanna Maliar, stand out, who said yesterday: “Civilians in the temporarily occupied settlements in the Kherson and Crimea region are in a critical situation, since the destruction of the dam deprived them of fresh water. In addition, the positions of Russian military units were flooded, which could lead to large-scale flooding of Russian minefields and their detonation in a chaotic manner.”
In effect, Russian troops fortified themselves on the southern bank when they crossed the Dnieper on their withdrawal from the city of Jershon in November 2022, in anticipation of a – very risky – Ukrainian attempt to cross the river. From these positions, the Russian artillery continues to bombard the Ukrainian side.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu accused Ukraine of blowing up the dam to cover the movement of its own troops from Kherson “towards the area of ​​offensive operations” (that is, further east), preventing Russian forces, with the triggered flood, attack. The context to which Shoigu was referring is that of the first movements that are observed these days of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. According to this, Kyiv would be interested in moving troops from the Kherson region to the Zaporizhia region.
On the other hand, for the Russians to flood their own southern shore would make it even more difficult for the Ukrainians to land if they wanted to.
Yesterday another aspect pointed out by the Ukrainian deputy minister was not clear, the water supply to Crimea. The channel has its source just on the other side of the dam. Russian Crimean leader Sergei Axionov said “there is a risk that the North Crimean canal will become shallow” although “there is more than enough drinking water” and “work is underway to minimize water losses.” . It is necessary to remember that, after the Russian annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainians closed the canal, which caused a disaster in the agriculture of the peninsula. With the Russian invasion in the south of the country, the canal was reopened.
The other particularly sensitive point is the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which is located at the tail of the dam and in the middle of a large reservoir measuring 240 by 23 kilometers. Its six reactors are shut down, but cooling water is also needed for waste and diesel generators. The director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, said yesterday that the level of the reservoir had dropped and it was possible that water could not be pumped into the circuits. Anyway, he pointed out, the cooling pool, which is above the level of the Dnieper, contains enough water, since the reactors are off, to last a few months. Grossi was scheduled to travel to Zaporizhia next week.
On the other hand, yesterday it was learned that the Joe Biden government agreed to a Ukrainian plan to attack the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, reports Fernando GarcÃa from Washington. The news came three months before, last September, the sabotage was carried out through underwater explosions that seriously damaged the pipelines. This was published yesterday by The Washington Post, citing leaked reports. The CIA learned of the information in June through a European spy agency.
According to the document, six members of the Ukrainian special forces intended to blow up the ducts.
The document was based, according to the Post, on information obtained from an individual in Ukraine and would show that for almost a year Westerners have had a basis to suspect Kyiv of being responsible for the sabotage. But the information, which included specifics about the number of operatives and attack methods, could not be immediately verified. The possible Ukraine link, the Post writes, “has only strengthened in recent months, when German police investigators have uncovered evidence of the bombing that bears striking similarities to what the European service had indicated Ukraine was planning.”
