When the parliamentary elections are just around the corner, just over a month and a half before May 12, Salvador Illa’s PSC would clearly win them again, according to the first barometer of the year from the Center d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) dependent on the Generalitat, followed by Esquerra Republicana and Junts who would compete to be the second force in the Parliament with an advantage for the Republicans. For its part, the PP moderates its expectations due to the rise of Vox and both parties would compete for fourth place with the commons.
The field work of the CEO’s first barometer of the year was carried out between February 9 and March 7, so those surveyed at the time were not aware of the electoral call decided on March 13 by the president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, seeing the budgets knocked down, and even less the more than likely candidacy of former president Carles Puigdemont that could be confirmed this Thursday.
Specifically, the Catalan socialists would prevail with a range of seats between 35 and 42, slightly below the barometer published in November that gave them a minimum of 39 and up to 45 deputies, although above the 33 they had in the legislature. that ends. In any case, they would be very far from the absolute majority (68), which would force Illa to agree with ERC or Junts to govern, or to tie a remote and unlikely alliance with the commons supported by the PP, in a similar way to how Jaume Collboni became mayor of Barcelona.
And perhaps the most interesting part of the survey is precisely the fight in the independence movement, between ERC and Junts. Before even considering a Puigdemont candidacy, the post-convergents are already in a position to take second place from the Republicans, although those of Pere Aragonès are still ahead. The barometer gives between 26 and 32 deputies to the Republicans when in November it granted them between 29 and 34 and it does not seem that they will be able to reach 33 in 2021.
On the other hand, Junts would apparently make the most of its role in the processing of the Amnesty law – shortly before the interviews it knocked down the bill in the plenary session in order to amend it – and the Generalitat’s demoscopic body grants it between 24 and 29 seats, when In November he gave it between 19 and 24. In any case, Junts would also be far from the 32 of the last Parliamentary elections, although, as has already been mentioned, it remains to be seen the electoral effect that Puigdemont’s candidacy may have, which When the interviews were carried out, it was not even contemplated.
Fourth place also seems very close, according to the CEO, between the PP, Vox and the Comumes. The candidacy led by Ignacio Garriga is the one whose expectations have increased the most, going from an estimate of parliamentarians of 6 to 9 in November to between 9 and 13, the same estimate as for the PP. Be that as it may, the PP seems to take most of the Ciutadans vote, which, according to the CEO, would disappear from the Catalan Chamber, since the popular ones, who have not yet decided on their candidate, would have at least 6 seats -precisely those that the oranges have in the Chamber – their previous results (3). In any case, the Catalan PP is losing some steam since in the last CEO poll in 2023 its range rose to 17 deputies.
For their part, the commons, who will be presented with Jéssica Albiach at the head, would secure the 8 deputies they had until now with the possibility of increasing them to 13. In their case, the trend is slightly downward since the November barometer It gave them between 10 and 14 seats.
Finally, the CUP would be in a position to maintain its current deputies (9) given that the survey gives it between 7 and 10. However, the pro-independence majority in the Parliament would be at clear risk in the Catalan Chamber, since it could only be repeated if The final results are close to the highest bands of the ranges of the pro-independence formations. That is, if ERC, Junts and the CUP achieved their best predictions, they would reach 71 deputies, only three above the 68. On the other hand, if the lowest parts of the ranges are added, they would remain at 57.
The survey also asks about the degree of knowledge and assessment of the main Catalan political leaders and concludes that the best rated are the former deputy of the commons Jaume Asens, with a 5.5 out of 10; the president of ERC, Oriol Junqueras (5.2), and the leader of Catalonia in Comú, Jèssica Albiach (5). Only they approve. They are rated by the president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès (4.9); the leader of Together in Congress, Miriam Nogueras (4.8), the spokesperson of the CUP Xavier Pellicer (4.7) and the leader of the PSC, Salvador Illa (4.7). The ex-president and de facto leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, gets a 4.1.
However, when talking about the assessment of a leader, the degree of knowledge must be taken into account, since those who are less well-known also obtain fewer negative scores from their opponents, which contributes to them getting a higher score. Thus, by level of knowledge, Puigdemont heads the list (98%), followed by Junqueras (94%), Aragonès (85%) and Illa (81%), while the rest are below 50%: Pellicer ( 26%), Asens (41%), Albiach (41%) and Nogueras (47%).
The leaders who obtain the lowest average ratings are the PP deputy in the Parliament, Lorena Roldán (2.8); the leader of the PP in Catalonia, Alejandro Fernández (2.6); Cs MEP Jordi Cañas (2.5); the Cs deputy Carlos Carrizosa (2.0) and the leader of Vox in Catalonia, Ignacio Garriga (1.9).
A relevant piece of information from the survey is that drought is, by far, the main problem that Catalonia has for those surveyed, an issue that did not even appear in the last barometer for 2023. For 15%, the number one problem is change climate and drought, and this is a fairly transversal opinion, except among voters on the right. Behind the drought, the main problems identified are those common in previous surveys: dissatisfaction with politics (11%), Catalonia-Spain relations (9%) and unemployment and job insecurity (8%). Catalonia-Spain relations are the first problem for Cs and PP voters and tie in with the drought for Vox voters.
Support for the independence of Catalonia remains stable with a slight increase of one point compared to November numbers. 42% of Catalans would be in favor of independence while 51% would be against it. Regarding the right to decide the future of Catalonia by its citizens, support is clear and goes from 73% in November to 76%.
Another of the issues that the CEO asks about is the amnesty law, which is now being processed in the Senate, and which obtains the support of 62% of those surveyed, two points more than in November, while its detractors assume 29%, two points less.
CUP supporters are those who indicate the highest support, 96%, for the future amnesty law. The supporters of Junts (94%), ERC (93%) and En Comú Podem (88%) follow. At a second level, 60% of PSC supporters are in favor of the criminal oblivion law for the process, while among those who do not have partisan sympathy, opinions are divided: 43% are in favor and another 43 %, against. At the other extreme, 88% of Cs supporters are against it, 84% of Vox and 74% of the PP.
The survey sample is 2,000 people aged 18 or over, residents of Catalonia, with the right to vote in elections to Parliament and the Congress of Deputies.
