Confusing survey of the CIS on Andalusia. It does not include a projection of seats and offers a forecast of the vote through forks that exceed three points in some cases. For example, the estimate of the PP ranges between 35% and 38%, while that of the PSOE ranges between 24% and 27%.
Such a range of possibilities leaves the attribution of seats very open, although in no case does it question the broad victory of the PP (which, according to the projection of La Vanguardia, would move in a range of between 45 and 51 deputies, which could leave Moreno Bonilla four seats away from the absolute majority).
For its part, the PSOE would achieve a number of seats that would fluctuate between the current 33 and a minimum of 30. And as for Vox, the CIS vote estimate (between 13.6% and 15.8%) could translate into a harvest of between 14 seats (two more than now) and 18.
At the same time, the alternative left structured around IU and Podemos –Por Andalucía– would be between 9% and slightly more than 11% of the vote, which translated into seats would mean between 10 and 11. And in turn, the radical option , Andalusia forward (with an estimate around 5% of the vote), could achieve up to three deputies.
Finally, Ciudadanos – with 4.5% of the votes – does not seem in a position to enter the Andalusian Parliament. And if the local formation, Jaén Deserves More, obtained a seat, it would be above all at the expense of the left. In any case, the average vote range would leave the PP with 47 deputies, the PSOE with 33, Vox with 16 and Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía, with 10 and 3, respectively. In almost all scenarios, the popular Moreno Bonilla would add more seats than the whole of the left and the abstention of Vox would be enough for him to govern.
In light of the poll, the mobilization of the electorate is very asymmetric. Although more than 75% assure that they will go to the polls, only 56% of PSOE voters in 2018 will repeat their support for the socialist candidate, while among PP voters vote fidelity exceeds 76%. The only consolation for the socialist Espadas is that his score is close to passing and has cut Moreno’s advantage as preferred president by four points, which still reaches 43% of those consulted.
The situation is very different in the Spanish scenario, according to the June barometer of the CIS, also released yesterday. The PP would have lost almost two points in relation to the May poll, while the PSOE, with a smaller decrease, would be more than two points ahead of the popular (29.2% compared to 27%). At the same time, Vox would remain above 16% of the vote; Podemos would improve his prognosis very slightly, and Cs would not come out of his agony. Do these figures mean that the “Feijóo effect” has peaked?
The answer, a year and a half after the elections, is not conclusive. The president has improved his grade and the leader of the opposition sees his worse (and enters the field of suspense), but Feijóo still scores better. On the other hand, Sánchez remains the preferred president (Feijóo has only cut six tenths) and in the confidence chapter it is Sánchez who has closed the gap.
