The 12-M “is a matter of two”, they maintain in the PSC and Junts although the question is what ERC will do. The electoral headquarters draw scenarios, including the electoral repetition, but the arithmetic that the ballot boxes yield is today inscrutable. The presidency of the Generalitat can become the key to the stability of Pedro Sánchez’s Government, dependent on the independence votes in Madrid. And the next 24 hours are crucial to awaken a pocket of one million undecided people, of which 100,000 are pro-independence abstentionists.
The scope of the PSC result will be set in the metropolitan area of ??Barcelona. In 2021, the socialists won 23 of their 33 deputies in the constituency that grants the most seats and that is where Sánchez’s forays into the campaign have been concentrated: Feria de Abril, Montmeló, Sant Boi, Vilanova i la Geldrú and yesterday in the pavilion of the Vall d’Hebron. The difference in seats between PSC and Junts in Barcelona can mark the result and drown ERC. Oriol Junqueras’s commitment to expanding the base had the red belt as its objective but during the process it was orange (Cs) and, after the general elections, it is redder than ever. The battle launched by Sánchez against PP and Vox is the incentive for the voter who does not feel challenged by the Catalan elections.
The PSC started in shock due to Sánchez’s scare but Illa, hieratic, has not changed his plan one bit: “lost decade”, “turn the page”… The state of exception imposed by the President of the Government adjusted the script. The Junts candidate, Carles Puigdemont, had monopolized the story of 12-M and Sánchez reduced the focus on the former president for five days. It can be key. Junts has not stopped seeking voting intentions for the PSC, converted into a catch-all party, with signings such as Josep Lluís Trapero and displaying the support of Manuel Castells, Santi Vila or Miquel Sàmper.
The future Government not only depends on the polls, but on post-electoral pacts. Illa proclaims that “the government of Catalonia will be decided from Catalonia” and the PSOE allows him to officially operate with a free hand. With absolute majorities ruled out, the candidate has shown his comfort with the reissue of the left-wing tripartite. The commons of Jéssica Albiach unequivocally claim the lifesaving formula also of Yolanda Díaz, who fails to get Sumar off the ground. In addition, the socialists have been working in Congress for five years alongside ERC, something that the Republicans boast about in front of Junts. But it remains to be seen how the ERC result fits together – the leadership and the bases – and whether its future is anchored to the left-right axis or the national axis. Pere Aragonès called elections after the commons slammed the door on the budget agreed with the PSC, but polls indicate that his attempt to show off his management has not caught on among the electorate.
The president has led the ranking of proposals – financing, referendum, Catalan ministry… – while “the rest talk about chairs,” Aragonès insists. He has launched attacks on Illa for the “Spanishness” of the PSC and unsuccessfully sought hand-to-hand combat with Puigdemont. Until the central campaign event, ERC had disdained appeals for unity from Junts. “We want to rebuild trust” with the independence movement, Marta Rovira now points out. Republicans avoid the debate on pacts and appeal to “pride” to mobilize their electorate. On Monday the focus will be on the headquarters on Calàbria Street. “We will have to call each other,” they point out from Junts; and “make efforts” so that ERC does not swing towards the PSC.
Puigdemont has managed to get more than 12,000 people to pass through the Argelers fan zone in a mobilization that they compare with the Junts pel Sí campaign in 2015. The former president has participated in rallies, press conferences and interviews, while Jordi Turull and Josep Rull were in charge of campaign B and the debates. Regardless of the results, Turull has already won. In the management, the image of a “first division, compact and orderly” party is celebrated and Jordi Pujol and Artur Mas are vindicated. However, nothing hides the fact that Puigdemont’s leadership and the promise of his return to Parliament for an investiture debate have triggered Junts’ expectations.
The former president depends on ERC to try to return to the Palau even if he does not gain an absolute pro-independence majority with the CUP; and Sánchez depends on ERC and Junts to guarantee the stability of his Government. During the campaign, contacts between the PSOE and Junts have been courtesy, but the tension is palpable between the interlocutors in Madrid. In parallel to the Catalan negotiation, the PSOE must approve the amnesty that would protect the return of Puigdemont and face the European campaign with the PP launching the European right-wing wave. Illa’s victory would be a springboard for Sánchez just as Alberto Núñez Feijóo aspires to an improvement in the PP’s result against Vox.
The PP leader has monopolized Alejandro Fernández’s campaign and has turned to Isabel Díaz Ayuso to stand up to Vox in his usual squares such as Artós in Barcelona, ??where yesterday Santiago Abascal again accompanied Ignacio Garriga. The popular ones are coming back and, in parallel, the extreme right can consolidate in the Parliament by now adding the Aliança Catalana of Silvia Orriols on the pro-independence flank. The 12-M arrives without pacts but with sanitary cordons.
