Donald Tusk, a liberal-centrist veteran of Polish and European politics, already feels with high probability his return to power in Poland after Sunday’s elections which, with the scrutiny very advanced but still unfinished, grant a majority to the sum of opposition parties that they support him. The ultra-conservative nationalist formation Law and Justice (PiS), in power for the last eight years, is the most voted force, but without the option of gathering sufficient parliamentary support.
The plausible replacement in Warsaw will reverberate in the balances in Europe, putting an end to a period of constant confrontations with Brussels due to the deterioration of the rule of law, partisan domination of the public media and attempts to control the courts. Donald Tusk, 66, former Prime Minister (2007-2014) and former President of the European Council (2014-2019), must forge a viable Government, mend ties with the EU and calm political polarization in Polish society.
With 90% counted as of Monday night, PiS – led by Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski – had 36.3% of the votes and Civic Coalition (KO), the coalition led by Tusk’s party, Civic Platform (PO), 29.7%. The two parties likely to support Donald Tusk, Third Way – a coalition of the centrist Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), heir to the old peasant party – and the leftist Lewica, won 14.4% and 8.4%. %, respectively. In total, then, the side of the centrist leader and former president of the European Council would add 52.5% of the votes.
Confederation, the extreme right that could have supported PiS, obtained only 7.2%%, when it aspired for more. The final results, as reported by the National Electoral Commission, will be released today at noon.
A period of 30 days then begins for the opening of the new legislature in the Sejm (lower house of Parliament), after which the president of the republic, Andrzej Duda, will have 14 days to entrust the formation of a government to a candidate for first Minister. Duda, without party affiliation due to his position as head of state but a former member of PiS, already made it known on Sunday through his spokesperson that he will make the assignment to the most voted force, “in accordance with the Constitution and tradition.” that is, to Law and Justice.
If the appointee does not achieve the investiture, successive 14-day periods will be opened with another candidate or with other majority requirements, so it is feasible that there will be no new Government in Poland until mid-December.
Sunday’s elections were perceived as crucial by voters of both stripes, but this feeling has been especially strong among Poles who aspire to a political turnaround that leaves the ultra-conservative era behind. Proof of this is the historical participation record. 72.9% of voters went to the polls, a figure that far exceeds the participation in the 1989 elections, those at the end of communism, which attracted 62.7% of voters.
Political scientists and analysts emphasize the participation of young people, especially young women, as decisive. The Poland of the ultra-conservative Kaczynski, where despite the growing secularization of society the Catholic Church still retains a lot of influence, has one of the strictest anti-abortion laws in Europe. During the campaign, Donald Tusk promised to liberalize access to abortion.
If he reaches the government, Tusk’s experience in the operation of the EU machinery will give Poland greater weight at the summits. Tusk promised to work so that the country receives the European post-pandemic compensation funds that Brussels froze due to violations by the current Polish Government. Poland’s close relationship with the Hungary of ultra-conservative Viktor Orbán – whose funds are also blocked for a similar reason – would change drastically, since Tusk distrusts Orbán’s ties with Russia.
Within the framework of PiS’s conflicts with Brussels, only the determined support for Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022 put the Polish Government, Kyiv’s main supporter, in communion with the EU partners. But that communion has also been diluted since Warsaw placed restrictions on the entry of Ukrainian grain and announced the end of arms shipments to Ukraine once the agreed contracts are satisfied. All in all, this is unlikely to change under Donald Tusk. The announcement of the end of supplies was due, in large part, to the fact that after delivering almost 400 tanks, several aircraft and some 3 billion euros in material to Ukraine, Poland cannot do without more weapons to ensure national defense.
