I know some politicians and, also, some observers of the Valencian political reality, from the left or presumably from the left, who a month after the last Valencian regional elections held in 2019 already predicted that El Botà nic would lose the 2023 appointment, with a forecast-conclusion of results four years ahead, quite a survey feat. Even some of these men and women believed that in these elections the Valencian left were going to lose everything they had achieved in 2015, but they were wrong. I have even saved clippings, and screenshots of links, of opinion articles and ambitious analyses, in various publications of, in theory, Valencian specialists in political communication (some of them university professors) and political scientists that not many months ago They already ruled that the Valencian left were doomed to defeat this coming month of May, both in the Generalitat Valenciana and in the main town halls such as Valencia.
Analysis and opinions, from politicians and specialists, that are not supported by objective data, because if so, certain conclusions would not be possible; no reliable survey today clears up the mystery of the Valencian 28M. These are statements based more on intuition, on a subjectivity contaminated by a pessimism that has accompanied these some and some since there was a change in the political cycle in 2015, because they did not believe it. Probably because 20 years of right-wing governments (24 in Valencia city) extended the hypothesis that the victory of the left in the Valencian Community was a historical anomaly. And these some and some, despite the results of 2015 and 2019, continue to think that everything is a parenthesis before the immediate return of the right to the government of the Valencian institutions.
The surprising thing is that these some and some of the left are more pessimistic than some are optimistic and some of the right. It is enough to observe that, despite the euphoria, prudence is maintained in the Valencian PP and, therefore, they are working in the right direction to face their 28M without triumphalism, seeking all possible resources (there is the landing of national leaders) and with its strategically well focused media terminals. In political terms, the Valencian right are more rigorous in their analysis than some and some of the left; In the end, it implies a more solid assessment of expectations. What aggravates what has been said even more: the evidence that some men and women from the left seem to be gripped by the paralysis that generates a suffering close to paranoia, with continuous appeals to a kind of electoral “end of the world”. And that, at this time, it is the left that governs the vast majority of the institutions and, one detail, almost all the municipalities with more than 20,000 inhabitants.
The 28M result offers as many positive and negative readings as one wants to come up with, from the right and left, but no objective data. If we still believe anything in statistical science and sociology, the information currently available is conclusive. What is likely is that some men and women, from the left or the presumed left, with their accused pessimism, will finally make the defeat a reality. They will always say that they had already announced it, even four years ago, or even eight years ago, without assuming that their prediction was unconscious? desire for defeat, and it is well known that when one wants to lose something, one loses it. But if they don’t get it right, if the left continues to govern the main institutions, those some and some will continue to say that what happened was unpredictable, illogical, and that it will be in the next elections when their prognosis will come true. They will only have to wait four more years. And so on to infinity…
