States spy on and spy on each other constantly. Whether by Pegasus on mobile phones, by satellites, by planes or by balloons. China and the United States have exchanged sophisticated espionage for decades. 22 years ago, two planes got so close that they collided in the sky over Hainan Island. After which they agreed to coordinate in the future to avoid incidents. So why has there been such a fuss about the shooting down of a balloon by a fighter plane, celebrated in the US as a feat of war?
Is it a Chinese provocation to test the limits of tolerance? Because they might think that sending such a conspicuous balloon over the intercontinental missile silos in Montana, without prior permission, would not end well. The wind blew it off, they say, but it looks like they could handle the balloon because they then carried it out into the Atlantic before it was shot down. And he diverted from Canada, who hadn’t asked for permission either. It turns out that, for certain types of espionage, a nearby balloon is more useful than a distant satellite. On the other hand, the other balloon that arrived in South America has done so with the permission of the countries concerned.
The mystery thickens if we think that the happy balloon spent almost a week admiring American landscapes without being attacked, although Biden ordered it fired on February 1 and the missile was not launched until the 4th. the cornfields you traversed? Maybe. But the United States did not seem overly concerned that the information obtained had been passed on to China with the plenty of time they had to do so before they fell. Or was it the US government that wanted to investigate the technology of the balloon by shooting it down in its territorial waters?
But also all this adventure occurs when Blinken had packed his bags to go to Beijing. Did someone in Chinese intelligence screw up Xi Jinping’s diplomacy? Was that why Biden took some time before reacting? Many questions but only one certainty: China is positioning itself in a risky geopolitical game. Faced with the growing hostility of the US, evidenced by the identification of China as a strategic enemy at the NATO summit in Madrid, China seems to want to take the initiative, looking for incidents that lead to a negotiation of new rules of the game. The powerhouse of the 20th century meets the aspiring powerhouse of the 21st century.
The subtle Chinese strategy seems aimed at retaliating without attacking in order to rebuild bridges before the situation deteriorates. It could therefore be a trial balloon on the new geopolitical tableau. The Republicans are becoming more bellicose, but Biden does not want to escalate a cold war with China, which would be catastrophic for the world economy. His strategy prioritizes defeating Russia. That is why Biden reacted to the Chinese provocation but without going too far, with a brief reference in the speech on the State of the Union. And the Chinese response is limited to the usual protest against the lack of manners. Swords held high