In the spring of 2022, as it became apparent that the Russian invasion was beginning to fail, the generals planning the Ukraine campaign realized that resistance on the battlefield could turn Russian warlords against each other. The infighting and disunity, they then calculated, would be a crucial step for Russia and the Russian people to understand that the war was unwinnable and that the country was paying an intolerable price to satisfy the vanity of its President Vladimir Putin. It was a path to victory.
Little could they imagine such a spectacular fulfillment of their wishes. On the night of June 23, Yevgeni Prigozhin mutinied together with his irregular troops from the Wagner mercenary group. Over the course of the next twenty-four hours, they seized Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s ninth-largest city, and embarked on a 1,000-kilometre whirlwind race to Moscow before agreeing and turning around with only about 200 kilometers to go. to reach your destination. Criticizing the clumsy invasion, Prigozhin had called for the dismissal of the Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff.
It is not yet clear if any of them have resigned or are about to do so. However, Prigozhin, who has apparently gone into exile in Belarus (at least for now), has done serious damage to Putin and his war. Wagner’s troops are supposed to be returning to the bases from which they left on June 23. Russia and its ailing president, for their part, find themselves trapped in dangerous new territory. From a tactical point of view, the war will be more difficult to fight. From the strategic, it will be more difficult to win. Furthermore, Putin’s authority has been severely damaged.
Tactically, Wagner’s mutiny has divided and distracted the Russian army. In the trenches the men will know that, while they are ordered to give their lives for a war branded by Prigozhin as corrupt, his bosses vie for power and influence among themselves. In the barracks, the officers will divide their attention between the war and their own future. They know that if a power struggle breaks out, they have to end up on the right side.
For Ukraine, on the other hand, the mutiny is an opportunity. His counteroffensive, which has lasted three weeks now, is going slower than expected. Although most of the Ukrainian forces remain in reserve, the advances are costing dearly. There could be no better time to break through the Russian lines. It is surely no coincidence that it seems that the Ukrainians are now trying to recapture Bakhmut, a city conquered with the blood of thousands of Wagner’s soldiers and perceived by the Russian population as the only gain for their side in the last year. If recaptured by Ukraine, that loss will underscore Prigozhin’s message to the Russians that Putin and his generals are failing.
Second, the mutiny has undermined Russia’s strategy. Since the failure of the initial assault, the theory of victory has been, on Putin’s part, that the West would eventually conclude that supporting Ukraine was a waste of money and effort. However, Prigozhin has made it clear that, in reality, time may not be on Putin’s side.
Russia cannot continue to do the same thing over and over again. Now that Wagner has shown how flimsy Russia’s defenses are, Putin needs to reinvigorate his command and bolster troops. However, by embarking on a new mobilization, he runs the risk of provoking popular discontent. When Putin steps on camera and insists that his “special military operation” is proceeding as planned, he wants to send the message that he is not going to back down. After Prigozhin’s foray, he risks appearing deluded.
This brings us to the third (and most important) dimension of this twenty-four hour drama: the effect on Putin’s authority. The Russian president has been humiliated. Wagner and Prigozhin, an ex-convict who has ended up working as a Kremlin agent, are his creations. In the Russian system, Putin rules by managing a potentially deadly rivalry between feuding factions. What he does is oversee an armed truce. His inability to prevent Wagner’s mutiny reveals that he has failed in his most important task.
Putin has also discovered the limits of his people’s loyalty. Wagner took Rostov, the command center of the Ukrainian war, without firing a shot. Some residents greeted Wagner’s men with food and water and cheered Prigozhin like a hero. For good measure, the regular army stood by and watched as a band of mercenaries rushed towards Moscow. That presents Putin with a dilemma. To show strength, he must now purge the army and the Kremlin of all those who have shown disloyalty. However, that could disrupt the course of the war and cause problems with those perceived as potential targets. On the other hand, if he doesn’t, Putin will imply that he doesn’t trust you to carry out his orders, which will also embolden the conspirators.
Furthermore, Putin has also shown weakness. In a furious speech to the Russian population on Saturday morning, he denounced Prigozhin’s “betrayal” and promised harsh punishment. However, the charges against Prigozhin have been dropped as part of a deal apparently brokered with the help of Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko. In Putin’s world, powerful leaders let no one get away and don’t ask the help of the dictator-in-training from the country next door.
Putin in his speech evoked memories of 1917, when Russian troops abandoned the front lines and rose up against their own government. No one can say if the Wagner mutiny has started something that will eventually topple the president. Putin could keep fighting. Now, this weekend, by making the comparison with the October revolution, he has laid bare his own fears. If he tries to reestablish his authority, he may resort to desperate violence and repression. For the sake of Russia and the world, we must hope that such a possibility is already out of reach.
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Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
