Like those bitter medicines that the patient reluctantly takes to achieve definitive cure, the Amnesty law continues to encounter objections from a part of public opinion. The Ipsos poll for La Vanguardia reveals that the grace measure agreed upon by the PSOE, ERC and Junts has majority support in Catalonia, but it divides Catalans, wary of its impact on relations with the rest of Spain. The best proof of this division is that 54% of those consulted support the law, but more than 40% reject it.
The division in Catalonia reaches such a point that it fully affects the electoral base of the main formation that has made its processing in Congress possible: the Socialist Party. At one extreme, more than 80% of pro-independence or common voters fully support the relevance of the amnesty. But in the other, almost 100% of the voters who voted for the PP, Ciudadanos or Vox in 2021 flatly reject it.
In the middle, socialist voters appear, divided into almost two halves, although with a certain advantage of those opposed to the grace measure. Compared to 43% who support the amnesty, 52% reject it. There are other exceptions to the repudiation of the law, but they are more anecdotal than significant – especially in the pro-independence world – and surely respond to very different reasons.
For example, 10% of ERC voters in 2021 disagree with the grace measure, and the same does a similar percentage of Junts voters. Among common voters, the rejection rate is around 20%. Even in minority areas – such as the more than 40,000 animal rights voters – the rejection of the amnesty reaches over 82%.
The reasons for the limited support for a law that would close the wounds that opened in the fall of 2017 are reflected in the fears generated by its possible effects. In fact, there is not even broad agreement on the soothing impact that the measure could have on coexistence in Catalonia. 51% of those consulted believe that the law will improve coexistence between Catalans, but 44% think the opposite.
By vote recall, 56% of socialist voters, 70% of those from Esquerra or Junts and 80% of the common voters are convinced that the amnesty will improve coexistence. On the other hand, only 8% of PP or Vox followers admit that the law can improve coexistence, while more than 90% of them deny that virtue.
At the same time, more than half of Catalans express serious fear that the grace measure will worsen the relationship between Catalonia and the rest of Spain. 54% harbor this fear, compared to 42% who disdain it. PSC voters are the ones who most accurately reflect this dilemma, with percentages practically identical to the average.
Now, this fear even reaches a percentage above 40% among the pro-independence electorate (with 46% in the specific case of Junts voters). And at the same time, and as if it were a self-fulfilling prophecy, this negative view of the impact of the law on the rest of Spain is around 80% among voters of the PP, Vox or Ciudadanos.
Skepticism about the possible restorative effects of the grace measure can be seen in the fact that 40% of those consulted by Ipsos assure that the law “will not be of any use.” This skepticism falls below 30% among the pro-independence electorate, although it rises again slightly among left-wing voters (37% among socialists and 33% among commoners) and skyrockets among right-wing voters (above 60%). It should be noted, however, that a third of PP voters admit the usefulness of the measure. And the same happens with 56% of all Catalans.
The positive note should be given by the fact that 53% of those consulted (and the same rate among PSC voters) think that the amnesty will strengthen democracy. And almost 80% of secessionist voters believe this. However, 42% of Catalans and close to 100% of the conservative electorate think otherwise.
Finally, the survey asks about independence as a priority for the Government that comes out of the polls on May 12. And there, 72% believe that it should not be, compared to only 27% who believe that it should. The rejection of a restart of the process is almost unanimous among voters opposed to secession. And it even touches 60% among ERC voters. However, around 70% of Junts or CUP followers insist on reopening the territorial conflict.