Years ago, ERC was divided into four factions: two social democrats of a gradualist independence movement, led one by Josep Lluís Carod-Rovira and the other by Joan Puigcercós, and on the other hand the sector that we could call traditionalist, more conservative and essentialist, attached to the intimate longing of an autarkic homeland, which was then headed by Joan Carretero and Uriel Bertran. When the Republicans made Pasqual Maragall and then José Montilla president of the Generalitat, the latter began to stir restlessly and Carretero, then a councilor, left the Government. Later, within the first faction, personalisms emerged and that ended like the Rosary of Dawn. This preamble serves to frame the difficult decisions that ERC faces and that are crucial for that party, for the government of Catalonia and for the Spanish legislature.
After the announcements of withdrawal by Pere Aragonès and Marta Rovira, as well as the tactical step to the side to try to revalidate his leadership by Oriol Junqueras, the first thing that the still leaders of the party have decided was to leave the leadership in the hands of the militancy. most controversial decision, that of supporting or not the investiture of Salvador Illa. It was clear that no one would want to assume in person the historic resolution of appointing a socialist as president of the Generalitat. However, it will be Rovira who will pilot the transition to the November congress and the process to avoid or not repeat the election. Her weight in the party is indisputable, above factions. She was the one who once put the most pressure on Carles Puigdemont towards the unilateral declaration of independence without Junqueras telling her off or who imposed from Switzerland the limits of the negotiation with the PSOE to make Pedro Sánchez president.
What the ERC militancy will decide is unknown. The party has entered into an interim leadership period and we will see if someone will induce the bases to go in a certain direction. Although the risk of sinking further in the event of a repeat election is evident, the designs of the members are inscrutable, probably because of that distinction that this article opened about the souls of the party.
The 12-M elections have been a turning point that will force the independence movement to address regeneration, in the same way that the PSC once suffered its internal personal and doctrinal tears during the rise of the process. The socialists underwent leadership changes, renounced the defense of the right of self-determination and lightened the Catalan accent. Convergència/Junts and ERC have governed Catalonia with different formulas for a decade. Its leaders have survived politically despite prison or judicial charges. Paradoxically, these situations have invested them with charisma as heroes of the independence resistance. But the polls have thrown up a change of script.
The problem is that neither Esquerra nor Junts have undisputed replacements. The Republicans tried it with Aragonès, but the exercise of government has burned that generation. In Junts the division is such that they cling to the figure of Puigdemont to avoid the brawl. The former president has announced that he will leave Parliament if he is not inaugurated, but has not clarified his future in the party. After these elections, Junqueras and Puigdemont may leave the political front line or, if they continue at the front, they will have to adapt to a new phase in which they will not have the main bastion, the Generalitat, and in a society with other priorities. Junqueras has tried to change the discourse. Even, to a lesser extent, Puigdemont.
Pedro Sánchez assures that this 12-M the process is over thanks to his policy of “deflation,” while Alberto Núñez Feijóo insists that he is more alive than ever. He confuses the PP, the process, with the independence movement. One thing is the political movement that attempted secession thanks to decisive social support that has now not been revalidated at the polls. And another is the independence movement, which has not disappeared nor will it, although it has now taken a step back for multiple reasons. If the process cannot continue because right now it does not have sufficient social strength, the question is whether the leaders of ERC and Junts who led that stage and have reached this point are the ideal leaders to defend a new strategy and to encourage their formations in the new cycle that the Catalans have decreed with their vote.
