A miracle, or what is the same, that the polls are completely wrong, is what the Italian left needs to overcome the terrible data that comes from the latest polls published in the transalpine country. They are also the last before the obligatory silence of the fifteen days prior to September 25, a key event for Europe, in which in all probability the third largest economy in the euro, now led by the former president of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi , will pass into the hands of the extreme right.
The latest Ipsos poll, published this Friday in the pages of Corriere della Sera, assures that the result of the elections “does not seem to be under discussion” since the right-wing bloc extends its comfortable advantage to the left by almost 20 points, 46, 6% vs. 27.2%. The estimation of parliamentary representation is overwhelming, following the Italian electoral law that rewards coalitions. If this poll were correct, the next Chamber of Deputies would have 249 deputies from the right compared to 82 from the left and 37 from the 5 Star Movement (M5E).
The grillini, led by Giuseppe Conte, are the surprise of this election campaign. Despite the fact that they seemed destined for extinction due to the multiple divisions and internal wars, their decision to topple the Draghi Executive is giving them returns, especially in the south of the country. If in July they had 12.1% of the intention to vote, now they have grown to 14.5%, surpassing Matteo Salvini’s League as the third party. Other polls give them a better result. According to an analysis by the political scientist Lorenzo De Sio, this is because they have understood “the possibility of clearly identifying the representation of values ??and interests” in the economic field. Conte insists on defending the minimum wage and citizenship income, a subsidy for the unemployed that many see as essential at a time of serious economic uncertainty.
Behind the M5E would be the League, with 12.5% ??of the intention to vote according to the aforementioned poll, a victim of the thrust of Giorgia Meloni who capitalizes on the vast majority of right-wing voters and exceeds 25%. Although the victory of the right-wing coalition is taken for granted, it will be very important to know the strength of each one of the members of the coalition for the formation of the next executive. With these polls, Salvini, who aspires to repeat as interior minister, would have his hands tied. The same as Forza Italia, by Silvio Berlusconi, which does not exceed 8%. Meloni’s strategy of moderating his speech is working for him even in the north of the country, the stronghold of the League. It will not be easy for her to be prevented from becoming prime minister.
Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party (PD) shares the serious difficulties. He has focused his campaign on presenting himself as the only alternative to the extreme right, but Ipsos places him at 20.5%. He has lost two and a half points in just one week. Letta now seeks to convince the undecided that it is the useful vote in the constituencies where the party is open. In his ranks they recognize that the objective is no longer so much to win, but rather that the victory of the right is not so clear. Their fear is that they will conquer two thirds of the parliamentarians and can change the Constitution alone.
