In dangerous times, Taiwanese voters appear to have settled on a subtle verdict. In the presidential elections this Saturday, candidate Lai Ching-te would have renewed the presidency for the independentists, obtaining around 40% of the votes, with close to 90% counted. However, the good results of his two opponents, the Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party, predict a new majority in parliament, which will closely control his movements.
The president-elect, also known as William Lai, addressed his first statements to Beijing: “Taiwan is willing to talk to China on a basis of parity and dignity.” His rivals have already acknowledged defeat.
More than 19 million Taiwanese were called to the polls, on a particularly sunny day with temperatures of more than 26 degrees. The turnout, at 70%, would have been five points below that recorded four and eight years ago, when Tsai Ing-wen, from the same Democratic Progressive Party (PDP) of Lai, who was his vice president during the last election, won the presidential election. legislature. The high participation tends to favor the “independence supporters.”
The wear and tear of eight years in power would have reduced the enthusiasm of his voters, who, four years ago, were highly motivated to vote, with the Hong Kong protests still very fresh. On the other hand, in 2024, the international context, with devastating wars in Ukraine – a recurring reference of the opposition – and Palestine, is a deterrent factor for any adventurism.
When the count already exceeds 80%, the candidate of the Kuomintang or Chinese Nationalist Party, Hou Yu-ih, would obtain a third of the votes. While the Popular Party of the doctor and former mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen-je, the most attentive to the hardships of daily life, would achieve one in four votes. Both postulate, with different intensity, the need to recover dialogue with Beijing, first of all to reverse the economic slowdown.
The flights from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing have been full between yesterday and today, with Taiwanese businessmen and executives mostly determined to cast a vote against the independence movement, which they consider is negatively affecting their businesses. In the financial district of Taipei, the Kuomintang has won, as in the center and east of the country. The southwest, on the other hand, is the fiefdom of the independentistas, who also achieved first place in many urban areas, but not all.
The fact is that the average real Taiwanese salary, a modest 1,350 euros, has been declining for three years. The minimum wage, which is growing slowly, barely exceeds 800, despite high rental prices in the cities. The economy of Taiwan, a former Asian tiger, grew by 1.42% last year. The social elevator is broken and many young people dream of a job in Japan or the United States, although they end up finding one in the People’s Republic of China. Likewise, the accusations of corruption against the PDP, launched by the Kuomintang, would have weighed to a certain extent, without deciding the result.
Washington and Beijing are closely following the elections in the self-governed territory. Neither of the two capitals will be completely satisfied, nor completely dissatisfied. As much as the Chinese Communist Party has referred to Lai as “dangerous”, almost to the same extent as her vice president, the former de facto ambassador to the US – born in Japan to an Anglo-Saxon mother and herself a former US citizen – Hsiao Bhi-kim.
That same Friday afternoon, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met in Washington with a senior representative of the Chinese Communist Party and, at another time, with an envoy from Japan. Many Taiwanese like to see themselves as an independent country – without giving up all the great treasures of four thousand years of Chinese dynasties, which Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek took from Beijing to Taipei – but the reality, not only de jure but also de facto, requires many nuances.
Only at the end of the day will the exact composition of the Legislative Yuan, the 113-seat parliament, be known. 79 of them are awarded to the winner of as many constituencies, six of which are reserved for the aborigines of ancient Formosa, related to the Filipino islanders and other Malay peoples. The rest of the seats are distributed proportionally between the parties that obtain more than 5% of the votes.
Victory may be little for the PDP, which would reap one of its worst results. In this way, it could be forced to correct or slow down its rapprochement with the United States, accelerated under Tsai Ing-wen. Without the electorate having given any signs that it was necessary to change course and take the road to Beijing. Xi Jinping insists that reunification is “inevitable,” but the Taiwanese.
This is the eighth time that voters in the Republic of China choose their president through universal (and necessarily in-person) suffrage. Taiwan was a dictatorship during its first decades and did not lift martial law until 1987, allowing direct presidential elections to be held nine years later.
After the massive and festive rallies last night and today’s civic exercise, the Taiwanese have left the streets before sunset – something unusual on a Saturday – to stick to the television screens and follow the scrutiny.
The two defeated candidates have already recognized the result, disappointing but not entirely bitter. It must be taken into account that the independence movement has lost more than 17 points compared to its great results in 2020 and 2016. Thanks to the fact that the third party in contention, this time, has obtained more than notable results, with more than 26 % of votes. Whether this is a pause for relaxation or the beginning of a cycle change remains to be seen.
However, the local elections fourteen months ago already showed the decline of the PDP, which was only able to win in 5 of the 22 municipal corporations. To make matters worse, the last eight years of sovereigntist rhetoric have once again resulted – as happened with the first president of the same party – with the loss of recognition by nine states. Likewise, Taiwan’s passport continues to open quite a few doors – although there are 34 more powerful ones – but its athletes must compete in the Paris Olympic Games under the flag of Chinese Taipei.
