After an agonizing weekend in which the European Union observed with astonishment the rebellion unleashed in Russia by the leader of the Wagner group, Yevgeni Prigozhin, the Foreign Ministers of the Twenty-seven began yesterday to analyze what happened at a meeting in Luxembourg. Given the situation, they agreed that it is time to prepare for the scenarios and hypotheses that are opening up.
“Everyone is going to start working on the possible hypotheses and scenarios of what can happen. It is clear that the vision we now have of Russia is totally different. It is not only a threat because of its military capacity – it has already shown it with a war – but also because of its internal political architecture, ”the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, argued yesterday. “You have to face it, carry out analysis, see possible scenarios and have the capacity to respond, but it is not something that is done in 24 hours,” he added.
For the foreign ministers, the insurrection of the Wagner group is a sign that the internal unity of Russia is cracking, but also the power exercised by Vladimir Putin. Even so, Borrell expressed his concern about the consequences that “a nuclear power” like Russia may face political instability.
The Luxembourg minister, Jean Asselborn, also warned of the unforeseeable consequences that are opening up from now on. “If the largest country in the world with the most nuclear weapons falls apart and nobody knows who is in charge in Russia, it is a great danger not only for Europe but also for the world.”
“Of course, what remains in evidence is that what seemed like a monolithic internal Russian solidity has shown that it has gaps and gaps that are very deep and that, perhaps, and we will know with the close analysis that we are going to do together, it has more depth than simply the events that occurred yesterday,” said the Spanish Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares.
But despite the surprise and shock, the inevitable question has also been raised: how the new scenario in Moscow can affect the Ukrainian counteroffensive. “Nobody knows what is going to happen, but, logically, if there are internal differences [in Russia] this favors the other side,” Borrell admitted.
However, the ministers agreed that recent events have served as a “catalyst.” “Everyone has said that you have to continue helping Ukraine, and this has had a positive impact. We have to help Ukraine more than ever,” added Borrell. In fact, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dimitro Kuleba, via videoconference, asked his counterparts that given the weakness shown by Russia, aid to the country should be “redoubled”.
“The last days teach us that we do not have to think about changing the regime in Russia, we do not have to plan it: the Russians are completely capable of doing it themselves,” the Lithuanian minister, Gabrielus Landsbergis, said ironically. “Events like these may repeat themselves in the future. What we must do is keep the focus on Ukraine”, he added.
Precisely, the ministers gave their approval to the expansion of the European Fund for Peace of 3,500 million euros, and that will thus have a total of 12,000 million. This fund has been used to help send arms to Ukraine ($3.6 billion has been contributed so far), although it has also been used to support other nations.
Hungary maintains its blockade on a new shipment of 500 million euros from this fund. Budapest maintains its veto for the inclusion of the Hungarian OTP bank – the largest in the country – on the blacklist of entities that collaborate with Russia.
Borrell stressed that the EU also supports in other ways, such as the training of soldiers: so far there have been 24,000 and they will reach 30,000 “long before the end of the year.”
