Insecurity in the merchandise routes around the Red Sea, cessation of commercial operations, potential political destabilization of Egypt due to the loss of income due to the drop in traffic through the Suez Canal, fears due to the use of the African route, risks for the new attempted peace process in the Middle East launched by the UN… The consequences of the increasing attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, backed by Iran, on maritime traffic, on any ship with presumed ties to Israel, “however tenuous” , are larger and the European Union should react by launching its own naval mission to patrol the area, the European External Action Service (EEAS) states in a document sent this week to the capitals of the Twenty-seven.
The community diplomatic services, headed by the High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, already proposed in December to the member states to extend Operation Atalanta, which is dedicated to fighting piracy off the coast of Somalia, in the Indian Ocean, to join the Guardian of Prosperity mission launched by the United States and to which several EU member states have joined (Spain declined the invitation to participate). The Government of Pedro Sánchez, however, opposed the European initiative, arguing that the work of Atalanta, a mission supported by the Spanish frigate Victoria, is still necessary and its effectiveness must be reserved. The change in the objectives of the mission required the unanimity of the Twenty-seven, there was at least one more veto apart from the Spanish and the initiative declined, hence Brussels, faced with the worsening of the situation, dedicated part of its vacation to looking for alternatives.
The proposal to launch a new specific European mission to respond to the Houthi attacks against commercial shipping, revealed yesterday by El País, will be debated by the foreign ministers of the Twenty-seven at their next meeting, on January 22, and According to the schedule proposed by the EEAS, it could be launched just a month later, at the end of February. “Given the urgency to act, an emergency procedure would be adopted to develop the operational plan,” states the proposal, to which La Vanguardia has had access. The specific means of the operation have yet to be determined, but the objective “should include at least three anti-aircraft destroyers or frigates with multi-mission capabilities for at least one year,” the document states.
“We hope that Spain will not oppose this time, but you never know,” point out European sources, aware of the potential internal political difficulties. As Sánchez explained to US President Joe Biden in a telephone conversation at the end of the year, Madrid would support the launch of a specific mission to act in the Red Sea and the Gulf. Resistance is not expected at the regional level either. “Despite the cautious approach towards the Guardian of Prosperity mission of the Gulf countries, they are expected to react positively to the new EU mission, as it will increase the security of maritime navigation and make trade more predictable. , with the consequent positive impact on their exports,” the document states.
“It is highly likely that the Houthis will continue attacks on maritime flows, rather than acting against Israeli territory. The threat to maritime security is focused mainly on the southern Red Sea, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait region and the eastern Gulf of Aden,” explains the proposal to create the new operation, which at the moment does not It has a name. “To support Hamas, Iran is using asymmetric methods and intermediary actors to generate pressure on those who support Israel. “Iran, however, keeps such actions below the threshold of direct military conflict to avoid being drawn into open confrontation, given that the northwestern Indian Ocean is also important for Iranian shipping.”
This situation, warns Brussels, “appears to have contributed to opportunistic pirate attacks against five ships, from Yemen to Iran, and a merchant boat in the Horn of Africa, especially around the coast of Somalia, thus increasing the uncertainty and insecurity of commercial navigation,” warn the community diplomatic services, which see more advantages than risks in the implementation of the new operation, such as the weakening of “the political and operational credibility vis-à-vis the countries of the region, the large international and maritime industry” or the possibility of suffering shortages in strategic supplies or excessive dependence on third parties, in addition to a negative impact on the European economy due to the increase in prices of imports, natural resources and other goods that usually circulate through the Red Sea.
