The European Union has run out of patience with Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister. In an atmosphere of tension and open anger with Budapest, unprecedented political and economic pressure strategies are beginning to be used in Brussels to try to get the Magyar ultra-nationalist leader to stop blocking the reform of the community budget that will allow 50 billion euros to be allocated in aid and loans to Ukraine, the umpteenth battle in which it is embarking against its European partners.
The negotiations are not progressing and – once again, whether sanctions against Russia or any measure of support for Kyiv – Orbán remains entrenched in his veto of a decision that the other 26 countries in the club do support. This time, being fed up can have consequences. Frustrated, several countries have put on the table the possibility of activating Article 7 of the Union Treaty and depriving Hungary of its right to vote in the Council as a consequence of its persistent violations of the rule of law while, in parallel, community technicians They outline possible ways to exert economic pressure against the country with the aim of making Orbán reconsider.
“In the event of no agreement [at the summit convened] on February 1, the other heads of state and government could declare that, in light of the obstructionist behavior of the Prime Minister of Hungary, “they cannot imagine” how the EU is going to continue giving funds to Budapest”, states a document prepared by the General Secretariat of the Council, revealed last night by the Financial Times newspaper. Without community financing, “European financial markets and companies could be much less interested in investing in Hungary”, a situation that “could further raise the costs of financing the public deficit and cause a fall in its currency”, the forint Hungarian, estimates the document, which reviews the delicate financial situation of the country.
“It is not a plan, it is a suggestion,” European diplomatic sources clarify, confirming the authenticity of the note prepared by the General Secretariat of the Council. The reflection on a possible economic boycott strategy against an EU partner occurs while calls are intensifying to advance the file opened against Hungary for its violations of the rule of law and to press the nuclear button, the possibility of withdrawing its right of vote. Such a decision must be approved unanimously by the other 26 countries and while the ultra-conservative PiS party was in power in Poland it was assumed that it would block it. Now Donald Tusk (European People’s Party) governs in Warsaw and, although Orbán has a new ally in Slovakia, Robert Fico, things are changing.
“Hungary does not give in to blackmail,” its Minister for European Affairs, János Bóka, wrote on social media last night. “The document drawn up by Brussels bureaucrats only confirms what the Hungarian Government has been saying for a long time, that access to European funds is used for political blackmail purposes,” replied Bóka, who assures that his Government continues to have “constructive discussions ” with the other EU partners. However, after it became known on Friday that several countries were betting on withdrawing Hungary’s voting rights, his government sent a compromise proposal to Brussels this weekend.
Regardless of whether the strategy of economic pressure is carried out, the document illustrates the level of frustration and anger that exists in the EU with Orbán, the only European leader who has not cut ties with Vladimir Putin since the beginning of the invasion Russian from Ukraine (in December both leaders met in Beijing) and leader of the European ultra-conservative movement against the model of liberal democracies. The Twenty-Seven will hold on Thursday an extraordinary summit called after the failure of the December negotiations, when Hungary made it a condition that Brussels unlock the more than 20 billion euros that the country has frozen as a result of repeated violations of the rule of law, in particularly due to its problems of corruption and lack of judicial independence.
Although for weeks the team of the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, has been managing a possible plan b to prevent Kyiv from being left in the cold in the event that Budapest maintains its veto, the rest of the delegations are reluctant to activate it (it implies acting outside of the EU framework and several countries would have to ask their respective parliaments for permission). There is less and less desire to give a victory to Orbán, especially with an issue as “existential” as the war in Ukraine. “The basis of the agreement is that all countries make concessions. I am not sure that changing everything to satisfy only one will work. There is a high level of frustration in the environment,” diplomatic sources commented on Friday after the last meeting of ambassadors.
“It doesn’t seem right to me to respond to blackmail with blackmail” but “Hungarians have to reflect on which side of history they want to be on. Do they want to be the ones who say that they are going to be left alone and let them fend for themselves?” , said today the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel. Ukraine faces its most difficult winter from a military and financial point of view. The attempts by the EU and the US to shield their macro-financial aid to the country to guarantee the functioning of its administration for four years, regardless of possible international political ups and downs, have failed. President Joe Biden cannot get Congress to unlock the $62 billion he promised to Kyiv and Europe is still watching Hungary.
As a major concession, Budapest has proposed dividing aid to Ukraine into four tranches, which would require its approval annually and would offer new veto opportunities to Orbán, hence the refusal of the other 26 countries. “The objective remains to agree on a solution with the 27 member states,” diplomatic sources emphasize. If Hungary does not finally give in, it now knows what it is exposing itself to. The mere drafting and subsequent leak to the press of the document on possible economic sabotage reveals a major change in the attitude of the club, until now reluctant to act against the Orbán Government despite calls from the European Parliament. The guilder and Hungarian public debt bonds have already suffered the bad news today.
