For months all private polls have placed Alberto Núñez Feijóo ahead of Pedro Sánchez but the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) is reluctant to do so even this month, despite the clear victory of the PP in the municipal and regional elections of 28 May, the subsequent electoral call by the President of the Government and the disappearance of Ciudadanos from the electoral scene.
The President of the Government and Secretary General of the PSOE would prevail in general elections if they were held today with half a point of advantage over the leader of the PP, according to the June barometer of the demoscopic institute, whose field work was carried out between the 30th of May and June 7, when the electoral advance of the generals for July 23 was already known and that Cs would not attend the elections.
According to the organization led by the socialist José Félix Tezanos, the PSOE would take 31.2% of the votes, which represents an increase of almost two points in vote estimates compared to the survey in May, all this at despite the fact that in direct intention to vote, the Socialists sign up only four tenths more.
In fact, in this variable – the spontaneous response given by the citizens surveyed when asked which party they are going to vote for on July 23 – the PP surpasses the Socialists by one tenth. And it is that the party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo profits from its recent electoral victory with an increase of 3.5 points compared to May in estimated votes, practically ten points more than what it obtained in the general elections of November 2019.
The CIS poll already assumes the estimate of the vote for Podemos in Sumar despite the fact that on the dates that the interviews were carried out the formation of the minister Ione Belarra had not yet given its approval to the integration with the platform of the second vice president Yolanda Diaz. In any case, Sumar would remain in third place, a very relevant condition in the allocation of seats in small provinces, with 14.3% of the estimated vote, one point below the aggregate results of Unidas Podemos and Más País/Compromís in 2019.
However, this estimate of the vote hides a significant loss of electoral support when compared with the results given by the barometer for May. In this sense, the drop in direct intention to vote for both Sumar and Podemos after the electoral debacle of the purples on 28-M and the fights between the leadership of the latter and the rest of the parties that make up the space is very symptomatic. If in the May barometer the direct vote for Sumar was 9.6%, which the CIS translated into an estimate of 12.3%, and the direct vote for Unidas Podemos was 4.3%, with an estimate of 6.1%, now the direct vote for the group is 8.3% (6.4% for Sumar and 1.9% for Podemos).
According to the survey, Vox seems to have reached a ceiling since despite revealing itself as a key formation to select regional and municipal governments for the PP, it remains stable, in fourth position, with an estimate of 10.6% of the vote, 4.4 points below the scrutiny of the last generals.
The work of the public body detects significant movements in Catalonia after Esquerra lost some 300,000 votes in the recent municipal elections and the victory of Xavier Trias for Junts in Barcelona. Throughout the legislature, the Republicans have maintained a significant advantage over the post-convergents and, in fact, in the latest ERC barometer, it doubled its pro-independence rivals in vote estimates. However, in the June poll there is a technical tie (1.8% for ERC and 1.6% for Junts) which is total if the direct intention to vote is observed (0.8%).
Regarding the evaluation of leaders, Yolanda Díaz remains number one with an average score of 4.89, one tenth more than in May; Sánchez, second with a note of 4.59, two tenths more, and Feijóo is the one that rises the most, going from 4.11 to 4.37. Abascal continues to be the least valued leader with a 3.
Both Sánchez and Feijóo improve their levels of trust among citizens but they do so to the same extent. Those surveyed continue to trust the current chief executive more, since 34.5% say they have a lot or a lot of confidence in him, while this data falls to 28% when asked about the PP candidate.
Regarding preferences to access La Moncloa, stability is also the predominant note. One in four respondents favor the current president, while one in five favors the president of the PP. The vice president is the preferred president for 12.7% of those surveyed while the Vox leader is only for 5.2%.
The economic crisis continues to be the country’s main problem, but mentions of it have fallen 5.6 points in a barometer in which the poor quality of employment marks a record and is placed fourth in the ranking for the first time, while the perception of housing as a problem continues to rise. It is also noteworthy that at a time when the controversies arising from the collaboration between the PSOE and EH Bildu, used by the PP in the previous campaign and also in view of 23-J, concern for ETA is nil.
