The five days of reflection that the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, took to decide last Monday that he would continue to lead the Executive have given wings to the PSC of Salvador Illa facing the final stretch of the campaign for the elections next Sunday , according to the second electoral survey by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) published this Monday, the last day on which electoral polls can be published.
According to this survey, carried out based on 4,051 interviews, the socialist candidate would be the clear winner with a distance of more than ten points over his immediate pursuers: Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, and ERC, with president Pere Aragonès at the head, that they would compete for second place with a slight advantage for the post-convergents. The PP would be in fourth position in a Parliament in which the far-right Aliança Catalana would enter with force, from which Ciudadanos would disappear, while Vox, Sumar and Comuns would lose parliamentary representation.
The CIS data broadly coincides with half a dozen other surveys published by various media this Monday, although all of them, unlike the public body, place Junts significantly ahead of Esquerra and much closer to the socialists.
Be that as it may, the CIS field work was carried out between April 24, the same day that Sánchez made the decision to empty his agenda and reflect on his future, and April 30, the day after his decision. final, in such a way that the Catalan electoral campaign, which formally began on April 26, was overshadowed by the performance of the head of the Executive during the entire period.
Another of the keys to the survey by the organization led by the socialist José Félix Tezanos, which does not estimate seats, is the enormous percentage of undecided people, 39.7%, which in any case invites caution. In contrast, 56.7% of those surveyed acknowledge that they have already decided their vote.
Specifically, the PSC would obtain a range of between 29.8% and 33.2% of the votes, which would place the PSC above 40 seats, since the survey published two weeks ago by the same The body attributed him between 27% and 28.3% and gave him a range of between 39 and 40 deputies. In any case, the jump compared to the 33 deputies that the socialists had in this legislature would be more than notable.
Junts would remain more or less stable with a slight downward trend compared to the last CIS survey, garnering between 15.4% and 18.1% of the vote, which according to what was estimated in April would place it just around 30 deputies. Esquerra would also fall and would be between 15.2% and 17.9% of the estimated vote. Two weeks ago, the CIS awarded it between 27 and 28 seats, but with a higher range of between 17.7% and 19.5% of the votes.
The CIS estimates for Alejandro Fernández’s PP between 9.6% and 11.9% of the votes, between 0.4 and 1.3 points more than in April, when it gave it between 13 and 14 deputies. The far-right Vox, led by Ignacio Garriga, would reap between 5.8 and 7.5% of the votes; With a very similar range (6.3-7.5%) the CIS gave it between 8 and 9 seats two weeks ago.
Comunes-Sumar, with Jéssica Albiach at the helm, would get between 5% and 6.7% of the votes, and the CUP, led by Laia Estrada, would get between 3.2% and 4.6%.
The case of the far-right Aliança Catalana deserves special mention. Like all formations, the CIS does not attribute seats but grants it a voting percentage of between 3% and 4.6%, figures that are very similar to those of the CUP, to give an example, formation to which in April the public body gave it between 5 and 7 seats with a vote percentage of 3.7% to 4.6%.
The CIS survey not only favors Illa in vote estimates but also in the evaluation of the candidate, since the first secretary of the PSC improves his score compared to the April survey, going from 5.35 to 5.42. He is the only leader who approves, given that the second highest rated is Aragonès with a 4.77 (he had a 4.86). Albiach is third with a 4.3, followed by Puigdemont with a 3.86. The lowest rated leader continues to be Ignacio Garriga (Vox) with 2.15.
But the leader of the PSC is also the preferred one to preside over the Generalitat (27.3%), the one who arouses the most confidence (25.8%) and the one who is most prepared to solve the most relevant problems of Catalonia (25.8% ), according to the respondents.
Despite the fact that Puigdemont is fourth in rating, since non-independence voters rate him very poorly, he is second as preferred to preside over the Generalitat (16.9%), as the one who inspires the most confidence, cited by 14% of respondents, and as the most prepared to solve the most relevant problems of Catalonia (14.8%).
Asked which party or coalition is raising issues of most interest to Catalonia in this campaign, 22% of those interviewed mention the PSC; 12.8%, to ERC, and 11%, to Junts.
