Galicia can write a different page of its history next Sunday. The Sociological Research Center (CIS) once again places the PP as the winner of the elections to the Galician Parliament this Sunday, but on the verge of losing the absolute majority, giving it 42.2% of the votes and a range of seats from 34-38. The absolute majority is at 38, so if this forecast comes true, which is what CIS already announced in its survey a week ago, Alfonso Rueda has many options of not revalidating the presidency of the Xunta. And, in front of him, he has a BNG that does not stop growing, at the expense of the socialists, but maintaining options that Ana Pontón could be the first Galician president, with the support of the left. A woman has never presided over the Xunta in more than forty years, since the first elections in Galicia, in April 1981.
The survey, prepared from 4,000 interviews conducted between February 5 and 7, proposes a scenario in which the BNG soars and would obtain 33.4% of the votes, which translates into 24-31 seats. The electoral campaign is going well for Ana Pontón, for whom the CIS poll on January 25 gave 29.3% of the votes and 20-23 seats in the Galician Parliament and the one on February 5 already rose to a 32.9% and 22-26 seats.
The BNG is, furthermore, the party that is raising in this campaign “issues of most interest to Galicia” for the majority of those surveyed, 34.2%, followed by the PP (29.3%) and at a distance the PSdG (8 ,1%). The BNG (27.4%) and the PP (27%) are also the parties that are raising the most “issues of their personal interest.”
And as is logical, if the BNG grows it does so at the expense of the PSdeG-PSOE. The candidacy led by José Ramón Gómez Besteiro remains at 18.1% of the votes and 9-14 seats. The socialists have suffered a significant drop in votes in this last week, but the downward trend has been perceived since the beginning of the campaign. The January 25 CIS poll gave them 20.4% of the votes and 15-17 seats, and the February 5 poll gave them 20.1% and 13-15 deputies.
Pontón, with a 5.89 out of 10, has the highest degree of knowledge among Galician voters, higher than Rueda, despite the fact that he is the current president of the Xunta, who remains at 5.29. Below five, Besteiro (4.85) and Lois (4.06). Furthermore, the BNG candidate is the one who cares most about the problems of Galicia, for 39.4% of those surveyed, far ahead of the leader of the PP (30.7%) and the socialist (5.5%). .
As for Sumar, who is making his debut in these elections, the CIS predicts that they could enter Parliament, since it gives them 2.8% and 0-2 deputies. The expectations of the candidacy led by Marta Lois were better two weeks ago. On January 25, the CIS gave him 3.5% of the votes, which was reduced to 2.1% in the February 5 survey and now improves slightly.
Vox also improves its results somewhat, to which the CIS gives options to obtain representation in Galicia for the first time since the start of the campaign. The list led by Álvaro Díaz-Mella could obtain a seat, with 2.4% of the votes, since the poll gives it a range of 0-1.
The novelty of these elections could be Democracia Ourensana, a formation to which the CIS survey has given possibilities of obtaining a seat since the first survey, on January 25. In this third survey, Armando Ojea’s candidacy would have 0.5% of the votes and 0-1 deputies.
Podemos has fewer options. None of the three polls that the CIS has carried out in this campaign gives representation to Isabel Faraldo’s candidacy, which is declining to 0.2% of the vote awarded to her by the poll made public today.
The survey indicates that the majority of Galicians (73.7%) are already clear about their vote, compared to 23.7% who say they still have doubts. When voting, 50.3% indicate that they do so thinking about the party, and 35.4% say that they make their choice thinking about the candidate. The importance of the electoral brand could explain that, despite the fact that Pontón surpasses Rueda in terms of knowledge and that she is the candidate who cares most about the problems of Galicians, Rueda is the preferred one as president, for 35%. . But be careful, because Pontón is for 34.6%.
