New data shows that the majority of the nation’s fastest growth was in suburbs of large cities. However, rural populations declined in the 2020 census. This data will be used as a basis for redrawing 429 U.S. House Districts in 44 states and 7,383 State Legislative Districts across the U.S. Officially, the goal is for each district to have roughly equal numbers of people.
Many Republicans and Democrats will also be working with another goal: to ensure that the new lines are divided and combined voters in ways that make it easier for their candidates to win future election. This is called gerrymandering. The success of the parties in this effort will determine whether taxes and spending increase, climate-change policies are approved, or whether access to abortion is restricted or expanded.
To take control of the U.S. House, Republicans must win just five seats in 2022 elections. This margin could be covered by artful redistricting.
David Wasserman, an analyst at The Cook Political Report on congressional races, stated that redistricting is “the game this cycle in Congress.” “Even small changes in district lines can have enormous implications and tip the balance of power at the House.”
Like they did in 2010, Republicans will have greater influence on the redistricting process.
Redistricting will be controlled by the GOP in 20 states, accounting for 187 U.S. House seat, which includes growing states like Texas, Florida and Georgia. Democrats, on the other hand, will control redistricting only in eight states, accounting for 75 seats. This includes New York and Illinois where the loss in one seat gives them an opportunity to squeeze out Republican incumbents.
Districts will also be drawn in 16 other states, which account for 167 U.S. House seat. These districts will either be drawn by independent commissions or politically divided politicians with legislative chambers headed by governors and members of one party. Six states only have one U.S. House Seat, so district lines cannot be drawn.
Redistricting is a great way for parties to gain an edge in states with large population shifts. They can either add or remove a district that is favorable to them, or redraw a district with a larger number of supporters.
The Texas suburbs were home to four of the 10 fastest-growing cities in the country, two near Dallas and one each close to Houston and San Antonio. These are prime areas for redistricting. The Census Bureau reported that many Texas counties, other than its metropolitan areas, saw their populations fall.
Republicans currently hold 23 out of 36 U.S. House seat in Texas. They will be able to have complete control over redistricting, allowing them the power to determine where to draw the new seats that the state is gaining. This could prove to be problematic as Democrats have performed better in the suburbs of Texas in recent elections.
According to Kelly Ward Burton, President of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, Suburban growth is a result of the migration of college-educated, young, Latino, Black, and other minorities — all core Democratic constituencies.
Burton stated, “If you take a look at the changes in the population over the past decade and draw a map consistent with it, Democrats win seats.”
Redistricting may be done by Republicans, who could draw maps to split those Democratic-leaning voters and add some to predominantly Republican districts in Texas to give the GOP an even better chance of winning more seats.
Census data also revealed that the Arizona suburbs, Salt Lake City, Salt Lake City, Boise and Seattle had the fastest growth rates.
Redistricting could be used by Republicans in Florida to draw new lines in central Florida. This would allow them to increase the number of GOP voters in Democratic-held seats. The Democratic Reps. Charlie Crist and Val Demings are running for U.S. Senate and gubernatorial bids. This leaves those districts with no incumbents and makes them targets for reshaping.
After the 2010 census, Republicans who controlled redistricting in far more states than Democrats drew maps that gave them a greater political advantage in more states than either party had in the past 50 years, according to a new Associated Press analysis.
However, Republicans will not hold the same amount of power in key states as they did last year. Republican-led legislatures in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Wisconsin will be paired up with Democratic governors. Both states had full GOP control following the 2010 census. Redistricting in Michigan will be handled by a citizen-approved commission, instead of the legislature and the governor. Ohio’s voter-approved redistricting reforms require that majority Republicans win the support of minorities Democrats in order for the new districts last a decade.
No matter how the lines are drawn, elections will be won regardless of who draws them, according to Adam Kincaid (executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust), the GOP’s redistricting center.
Kincaid stated that “Republicans won’t be able to retake the House next year due to Congressional Democrats’ outdated policies, and President Biden’s failed leadership.”
Redistricting will take place in a compressed time frame. Because of the difficulties encountered during the coronavirus pandemic, states are receiving the data four months later than they originally planned.
Map-drawers will need to work fast to meet certain constitutional deadlines or get judicial approval to take longer. For example, Ohio’s constitution sets a September 15 deadline for a board that will approve new state legislative maps.
“We’re in a bit more of a mess over how fast we can get it done,” said Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman (a Republican who is also a member the redistricting committee).
As political parties jockey for the best maps, many new districts will be subject to lawsuits in many states. Redistricting lawsuits continued for a good portion of the decade following the 2010 census. They led to major changes in some states. After four Republican-drawn districts were struck down in four states, the courts ordered the creation of new districts between 2016 and 2020. This gave Democrats a total of 11 U.S. House seats.
Wasserman stated that Democrats wouldn’t be in the majority of the House right now if it weren’t for Democratic lawsuits overturning Republican-drawn maps from Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida.
