The bicycle crisis has turned Portuguese politics upside down by marking the end of seven years of collaboration between the President of the Republic, the conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, and the Prime Minister, the socialist António Costa. After months of estrangement, on May 2 the confrontation between the two finally broke out through unprecedented events, broadcast live at the time of the news. The Infrastructure Minister, João Galamba, made public his resignation, which shortly after his boss, Costa, rejected in an appearance, a decision immediately criticized in a statement by the President of the Republic.
It remains to be seen if it is the start of a real war or a devilish game of poker. And if the conflict could end in early elections before the end of the year, despite the absolute socialist majority, or leave everything waiting for the electoral panorama that the 2024 European elections draw.
The crisis can be called that of the bicycle because it was the object with which, on April 26, the already dismissed adviser to the Ministry of Infrastructures, Frederico Pinheiro, knocked on the glass doors of the ministry, to try to get out with what was his computer. this department. Before there had been a whole row, with apparently physical violence, between Pinheiro and other members of the cabinet, for whom a robbery was committed against the State. Pinheiro had been fired for contradicting Minister Galamba in the TAP scandal, under parliamentary investigation, which, according to the adviser, his boss would have tried to manipulate.
In the end, the police let the man off the bike and the computer eventually ended up in the hands of law enforcement. In the middle there was a bizarre intervention by the SIS, the secret services, for the alleged theft of classified information, the subject of great controversy, for straying from the functions of the SIS.
While the May 1 bridge passed, with the Prime Minister on vacation and the President waiting, the media and commentators agreed in pointing out the events of the Ministry of Infrastructure as the most serious and caricatural in the Portuguese Administration in memory. . The press conference of the vehement Galamba, minister since January replacing Pedro Nuno Santos, formerly supposed dolphin of Costa, also killed by the TAP case, did not calm things down. This originated from the half million euros in compensation received by the administrator Alexandra Reis, who later became a Secretary of State and led to the controversy over the management of this renationalized company.
Galamba was given more than amortized on Tuesday the 2nd in the morning after meeting with a Costa who in the afternoon went to see the Head of State, in, everything indicated, the mandatory process of dismissals and appointments. The question in Lisbon was whether only the minister would fall or there would be the broad remodeling that even socialist leaders and Rebelo himself were betting on, who had described the government as “tiredâ€.
The announced script was fulfilled with the dissemination of Galamba’s statement announcing his resignation minutes before Costa’s television appearance. In reality, it was part of the staging of the prime minister’s coup of authority, so cheered up later in his party. Claiming his powers to appoint and dismiss members of the Government, undermined in recent times by Rebelo’s statements about other scandals, Costa announced that he does not accept Galamba’s resignation, because in his opinion he acted correctly in the “deplorable incident”. for which he blamed the adviser. However, the prime minister could not help but admit that the “overwhelming majority of Portuguese people” surely do not share his decision.
The televised crisis gained even more voltage with the president’s statement against the continuity of the minister and in defense of the prestige of the institutions. Two days later Rebelo appeared and lamented that the weakest pay the price. He maintained that the minister is the politically responsible, while pointing out that nothing will be the same from now on in his relationship with the Government, over which he will exercise closer surveillance.
Rebelo recalled the seven years of collaboration, despite coming from the “right” area. It is a novelty, because he and Costa did not move in those terms, but cooperation, even if it had deteriorated. In the emerging scenario, it is already possible to use what in Portugal is called “the atomic bomb”, in reference to the great power of a president with few powers, that of dissolving Parliament. Rebelo has been talking about this possibility for some time, but for next year if the problems into which the Government has gotten into despite its absolute majority are not overcome.
In the event of dissolution, for Costa the best thing would be right now, despite the fact that the polls show him drops of more than 10 points, but also options to continue at the forefront. And above all it would save him the purgatory of the TAP commission, which would close when he still has work until the summer. If the president were to dissolve this year, he would do so towards the end and depending on the chances of the conservative party PSD to govern without the extreme right of Chega. If not, the 2024 Europeans will set the course.
