Once the PNV’s decision to opt for the replacement became known at the end of November, the Lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, sent Sabin Etxea, the PNV’s headquarters, a schedule in which he listed the milestones that should occur. in the final stretch of the legislature and that were to precede the elections to the Basque Parliament. The document included intense legislative activity, the approval of some strategic projects and, finally, the arrival of three new powers included in the Statute of Gernika. With the approval this Thursday of the last three laws of the mandate and the possibility that the agreed transfers arrive with the Government in office, the electoral countdown accelerates and the option of an imminent electoral call that implies the dissolution of the Basque Legislature gains weight. before the end of the month and elections on April 21.
If this possibility is confirmed, the Basque elections will take the baton from the Galician elections and will be the prelude to the European elections, proposed by the PP as a kind of plebiscite on the Government of Pedro Sánchez. These three electoral events in just four months, however, will also test the leadership of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who today stakes his credit in Galicia at the head of the popular party and who, in the case of Euskadi, faces the difficult challenge to revive a Basque PP that remains on its electoral soil.
At this moment, all the Basque parties are working with the hypothesis of elections on April 21, even more so after Urkullu has summoned the leaders of the PNV and PSE for this Monday to take stock of the legislature. The prerogative to set the date of the elections belongs to the Lehendakari himself, but the decision has been elucidated by common agreement with the leadership of Sabin Etxea. In order to set the electoral moment, the Jeltzales have been assessing both the achievement of these milestones prior to the elections and the needs linked to the candidacy of Imanol Pradales, still unknown to Basque public opinion.
According to the latest Sociometer of the Basque Government, only 37% of those surveyed identify him by his first and last name, although the suggested knowledge would increase to 58%, as reflected in the EiTB Focus survey. This is a hindrance that the PNV will have to deal with, which with Urkullu had guaranteed a level of knowledge of 95% and very high and transversal approval rates. The Jeltzales, in any case, are convinced that these levels of knowledge will skyrocket as the election date approaches and are not in favor of extending the mandate, although some sources close to the party consider that Pradales’ pre-election filming has been delayed by excess.
On the eve of the electoral call, the pulses of the parties are marked by the surveys that have been published in recent weeks and that predict a very tight fight between the candidate Jeltzale and Pello Otxandiano, head of EH Bildu’s list. According to these polls, the Jeltzales would achieve a minimum of 24 and a maximum of 28 seats (out of a total of 75), while the Abertzale coalition would be between 24 and 27 parliamentarians. However, three of the five main surveys published so far this month give the first position to the Abertzale coalition, a fact unprecedented in elections to the Basque Parliament and unsuspected just four years ago (the PNV today has 31 seats and EH Bildu twenty-one). Equality is absolute, even with regard to the evaluation and knowledge of the candidates.
Beyond this struggle, the other point of interest is whether PNV and PSE will reach the absolute majority (38 parliamentarians), since the socialists have made clear their commitment to maintaining the pacts with the jeltzales. In this case, two of the five surveys give them that sufficient majority and the other three place them on the verge of achieving it. The Basque nationalists have many options to continue governing, but seeing themselves surpassed by EH Bildu or not reaching an absolute majority with the socialists would be a significant blow that would hinder them in the medium term.
The polls also coincide in pointing to a slight advance for the PSE, which would go from 10 to 11 or 12 seats and would benefit from the division in the space between Podemos and Sumar. The commitment of these formations to compete separately, together with the electoral decline that they had already been showing, places them in a very compromised position: both formations are struggling between achieving a meager representation or, in the worst case, being left out of the Chamber. .
The starting position of the PP is not good either. The photo of the moment, advanced by the polls, gives them the same representation as in 2020, six seats, their historical minimum. However, the popular ones fear that the fight with EH Bildu could drag part of their voters towards the PNV’s fishing ground and, at the gates of the European elections, turn the second electoral event of the year into a torment for Feijóo.