On January 26, Gabriel Attal did something unusual. The French prime minister visited a cow farm near the Pyrenees, launched a first salvo of promises to defuse the rural revolt and then headed to a highway blocked for days by tractors, the A64, between Toulouse and Biarritz. He was accompanied by the union leader Jérôme Bayle, a rancher and former rugby player. Attal chatted amicably with those gathered and shared an impromptu snack under a bridge. Hours later the blockade was ended.
Many analysts could not believe what happened. They wondered if a head of government and his official convoy could stand in the middle of a protest of such flagrant illegality as violating European freedom of movement.
The truth is that the new style imposed by Attal, 34 years old, smiling, jovial and empathetic, worked that day and was an important first step, although it took another week and more concessions to obtain the demobilization of the farmers. It is a fragile and conditional truce, but an indisputable success for the tenant of the Matignon palace.
Attal seems to be President Emmanuel Macron’s last resort to prevent the last three long years he has left in the Elysée, until May 2027, from being one of permanent discontent and periodic riots. He urges to appease a country always on the brink of social explosion. The challenge is colossal, but Attal has shown talent and skill in the last crisis. He usually wears a half smile, even in serious moments, which takes the drama out of things. It is intuitive and fast. Age helps him. His way of acting has nothing to do with that of his predecessor in office, Élisabeth Borne, who was almost twice his age and projected an image of a rigorous and anguished, distant and cold technocrat.
Attal’s first weeks at the head of the Government have tested his ability to dialogue and put out fires. The farmers are waiting, but the opposition does not give them rest. A motion of censure presented by all leftist groups must be voted on in the National Assembly today. It is very unlikely that it will go ahead – which would almost automatically lead to early elections – although the risk exists because the Government has been in a minority since the June 2022 legislative elections.
Attal’s scrutiny in Parliament is a consequence of his refusal to submit, motu proprio, to a vote of confidence. The Constitution did not require it. However, the left considered that, given the circumstances, it was essential to pass the revalidation to gain legitimacy among the citizens.
Macron took an obvious risk by opting for Attal, viewed with reluctance by the most senior ministers and the small allied parties in the Assembly. The president antagonized the Republicans (LR, traditional right) a little more, essential partners to carry out projects, by appointing Rachida Dati, Sarkozy’s former Minister of Justice and a well-known LR figure, as Minister of Justice.
The conservatives are very resentful of Macron, whom they accuse of wanting to destroy LR for years and of offering positions to some of its leaders. The approval, in December, of the controversial new immigration law is another reason for dispute because the law was later greatly amended by the Constitutional Court, precisely the harsh aspects that most interested the right. In LR there is a suspicion that Macron set a trap for them. They do not rule out a motion of censure in the medium term, despite the electoral risk they run.
Attal is Macron’s fourth prime minister since he came to power in May 2017. Édouard Philippe lasted three years and returned to the mayor’s office of Le Havre, in Normandy. He founded a party and ambitions for the Elysée are attributed to him. Jean Castex, former Prada mayor of Conflent, was there for almost two years and today runs the monster RATP, the Paris public transport company. Borne, who reluctantly left Matignon, has remained as a deputy.
Attal’s biggest challenge, apart from calming the country and navigating without a parliamentary majority, is the Olympic Games, which begin on July 26, the great symbolic moment of Macron’s second term. Afterwards, the president will have less and less room for initiatives. If Attal leads the Government well, his candidacy in the 2027 presidential elections will be almost inevitable.
