Mainland China and Taiwan are opposite and interdependent, like yin and yang. The ballots of nineteen million Taiwanese will decide on Saturday the degree of opposition and also the degree of dependence. After decades of practice they have learned where the red lines are, when to hurry and when to correct, under the scrutinizing gaze of Washington and Beijing.
Hundreds of thousands of supporters attended the end-of-campaign rallies last night, according to this ranking. Somewhat ahead in the polls ten days ago, the “independence” candidate Lai Ching Te aspires to retain the presidency for his Democratic Progressive Party (PDP). Centrist economically, advanced socially and, even with the brakes on, heading towards independence. Or its substitute, an even closer rapprochement with Washington and its allies.
If she achieved it, adding the two terms of President Tsai Ingwen, it would be a record. It will not be enough to declare independence. “No need, Taiwan is already a country,” says Lai.
It would be a record, but also a strident challenge. So, according to the most harmonious calculations, even in the best of cases, the PDP will lose the majority in Parliament that it has enjoyed until now. Nor is it ruled out that there will be alternation, with a return of the pactist Kuomintang to the presidency, in the person of Hou Yu Ih. The Chinese Nationalist Party (is what it means) is the party of order and, as such, proposes a former director of the Police. That order today involves banishing “adventurism” and resuming communication with Beijing, interrupted eight years ago.
“Taiwan should not be a pawn,” they say. Even these historic enemies of the Communist Party of China (CPC) have come to the conclusion that confrontation has a price. “Chinese tourists have disappeared, when before there were many,” says Valencian artist Salvador Marco, who has lived on the island for thirteen years.
Investments from mainland China have also disappeared, although these were never able to go beyond being testimonial, unlike the Taiwanese ones on the other side of the strait.
In Taiwan, it hurts that Joe Biden has forced TSMC to build a very expensive semiconductor factory in Arizona, which dilutes the strategic nature of the island.
The third in the running, the surgeon and former mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen Je, seems destined to attract part of the young vote that previously went to the PDP and who now fears that they will never be able to cherish the promised prosperity, nor emancipation. Not even personal.
His Taiwan People’s Party proposes the middle path, in its relationship between Washington and Beijing. Now, if the joint candidacy with the Kuomintang had been consummated – there was no agreement on who should be number one – the defeat of the “independence supporters” would be almost assured.
It should be noted that, for the first time, all the candidates are islanders, children of islanders. It matters little to the People’s Liberation Army, which reiterated yesterday that it “maintains vigilance” and that it will “crush” any attempt at secession.
Somewhat more diplomatically, civil officials in Beijing called on Taiwanese to “vote correctly,” at the same time describing candidate Lai as “dangerous.”
The CCP’s intimidation strategy includes increasingly frequent “violations” of the “median” between the mainland and Taiwan, with fighter jets, frigates and even hot air balloons. In parallel, Taiwan continues to increase its US arsenal, with Tsai having left the Defense budget at 18 billion euros, 2.6% of GDP.
It has also lengthened military service, which goes from four months to one year. In addition, men over 35 years of age are receiving notifications to “refresh” their military training.
Taiwan does not doubt that it is made in Taiwan. But, for Beijing, its survival is the epilogue of the “century of humiliation”, in its case, of the Japanese occupation, followed by American tutelage. China will eventually offer an update of the “one country, two systems” formula, successfully tested in Macau and more contested in Hong Kong. But none of the candidates show interest today.
Xi Jinping received on Wednesday the president of the Maldives, freed from Indian influence. But recovering ancient Formosa will take more time. The Taiwanese have the floor. They can vote.