In the past eight years, no European leader had held as broad a popular mandate as that of Nicola Sturgeon, Queen Absolute of Scotland, with support that cut across party lines. To say that with her departure Scottish nationalism has been orphaned is no exaggeration, nor is it an exaggeration that the prospect of a new referendum has receded in time. Finding a successor or a successor with her talent and charisma seems like a daunting task.
The independentistas are in a state of shock; Labor (which now has only one seat in Scotland), delighted at the electoral prospects that open up for them when such a formidable enemy as Sturgeon disappears from the scene, and the Conservatives gloat over what they consider “a triumph of Unionism” ( although, on the other hand, they fear that Labor’s advance in Scotland will be the final straw to any hope of staying in power in London). The British political chessboard has taken a sudden turn.
Sturgeon is gone because its luster was beginning to fade and the road was running out, the illusion that independence was just around the corner becoming harder to maintain. He realized that, electorally, support for the SNP had reached a ceiling, which went from 56 (out of a total of 59) seats in Westminster in the 2015 elections to the current 45. In the last regional elections he did not achieve an absolute majority (forms a coalition with Los Verdes), and criticism of his management of public health and education was growing stronger, backed by appalling statistics on life expectancy, obesity, waiting lists for operations and drug use. After eight years in power, and despite the austerity imposed by London, evading responsibility was becoming increasingly difficult for him. To this we must add a potential and explosive illegal financing scandal of the SNP whose repercussions could have hit him in the short term.
The race to choose a successor will culminate on March 27, when the vote of the around one hundred thousand members of the SNP closes. Potential candidates such as Stephen Flynn, leader of the parliamentary group in Westminster, and John Swinney, deputy prime minister, have already said they are not running. The favorites are the veteran Angus Robertson, a fervent pro-European, the young finance minister, Kate Forbes, and the ambitious head of Health, Humza Yousaf, who is a Muslim. Others who could throw their hats in the ring are Joanna Cherry, who opposed Sturgeon’s controversial trans law, Ash Regan, who resigned from the government for the same reason, and Ian Blackman, who until a few months ago led the nationalist ranks in the House of Commons.
Forbes, 32, a Cambridge-licensed accountant and the daughter of missionaries, is potentially the most charismatic, but has the handicap of belonging to the Free Church of Scotland, an orthodox Protestant branch that opposes abortion and gay marriage. Considered safe hands, Robertson’s problem is that she campaigned for the country’s NATO membership during the 2014 referendum, and the party’s left wing does not forgive her. And in the case of Yousaf, his bad temper and the fact that public health, for which he is directly responsible, is a disaster.
Sturgeon leaves Scottish nationalism divided, not only over the strategy to achieve independence, but over gender identity and a trans law that London wants to block, and that allows legal sex change at age 16 without medical consultation. The schism began with the accusations of sexual abuse against the previous leader Alex Salmond (he was declared innocent in the trial), the break with his former protégé and the creation of a new group (Alba), to which thousands of militants have left in the last months.
With a new referendum blocked by the British government and the courts, what path is left for Scottish sovereignty? A special SNP conference scheduled for next month has been postponed, until a new leader offers his vision. Sturgeon’s strategy of turning the next election into a plebiscite was unpopular, and will likely be scrapped. One possible route is not to try to force a consultation, but to consolidate support for independence by spelling out the plans on currency, financing and the relationship with the EU. At present, the country has an unsustainable budget deficit of 22% of GDP, which can only be solved with almost 50,000 million euros a year in subsidies from London. Another path suggested by some is to settle for greater autonomy, an economic agreement like the Basque one, and a federalism like that of the Swiss cantons.
