Why isn’t Pedro Sánchez making a comeback despite the good economic data? The answer is because of the amnesty and the Koldo case. Both facts explain why all opinion polls reflect a strong electoral erosion of the PSOE compared to a strong improvement of the popular ones.
Having subordinated the economy to politics is probably what explains the strong pessimism that exists in a good part of the Spanish population, despite the fact that the feared recession derived from the war in Ukraine has been avoided. Nor can it be ignored that the good data for the short and medium term situation contrasts with the poor long-term expectations.
Those who are more and those who are less are aware of the very heavy debt that we carry and the budgetary imbalances that continue year after year. But on a day-to-day basis things are going pretty well. All analysts agree that there are no dark clouds on the economic front. The forecasts of international organizations are optimistic for this year and the following ones.
It is very likely that Spain will end the year with GDP growth of 2%, well above the EU average, which stands at 0.6%, not to mention Germany or the large central economies, which they border on recession. There is good tourism data. Employment improves and Social Security affiliates rose by 2.7% in February, while unemployment fell by 5.2%. Purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sector (PMI) place them above 50%, which means that we are moving away from paralysis and producing at a good pace. Foreign trade has a surplus of 3.5% thanks to exports.
Expectations are improving, everything suggests that interest rates could begin to fall from April or May. European funds are arriving at a good pace and represent a boost for growth.
In large companies, salaries grow on average by 3.5% while employment is created at a rate of 2.9% according to data provided by the Tax Agency. Collective bargaining also reflects that the average salary increase is for the first time above inflation, which stands at 2.8% and could end the year at 2%. We don’t even talk about pensions.
It is not strange that consumption begins to rise, as shown by some leading indicators, such as the rise in home prices or sales. And the same can be said of rail or air transport. Car sales are up 12.2% through February. The latest rains are giving the countryside a break and the price of electricity is at historic lows.
If the stock market is at its best, what happens? Is Sánchez given so little trust? Why have the Spanish settled into pessimism?
Political tension harms us all. Above all, investment and employment.