It is difficult to row against the current, let alone challenge the Zeitgeist, the spirit of the time. And in Northern Ireland the winds are pushing strongly towards a nationalist majority (for demographic reasons), a loss of power and the influence of unionist parties, a youth that is less politicized and more interested in material issues than their parents and, with all these ingredients together and put in the blender, perhaps towards the reunification of the island in the coming decades.
After two years of boycotting regional institutions in protest of the Brexit agreements, and to prevent the access to power of Sinn Féin (former political arm of the IRA and the party with the most votes in the 2022 elections), the Protestants of the DUP ( Democratic Unionist Party) have finally given up. The Stormont Assembly, barring any last-minute setbacks, will reconvene at the weekend with republican Michelle O’Neill as first minister and chief executive.
In exchange, the unionists get some tweaks to the Brexit agreements that will eliminate routine controls on goods from the rest of the United Kingdom that have Ulster as their final destination. The green customs lane will be renamed the more patriotic-sounding British domestic market lane.
London, in addition, is committed to a legislative reform by virtue of which Northern Ireland will not have to automatically adopt EU rules on trade, as it has to do since Brexit, by becoming part of the single market so that there is no a hard border with the Republic. Official sources have indicated that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has negotiated this in advance with Brussels, and EU authorities agree in principle.
The idea of ??a border in the North Sea – the work of Boris Johnson – was anathema to unionists, believing that it pushes towards reunification. But it has to be somewhere in order to preserve the integrity of the single market. And if it is not between Ulster and the Republic (so as not to go against the Good Friday agreements), nor between the United Kingdom and Ulster, then in practice it means that the regulatory alignment between Great Britain and the EU will have to continue to avoid problems. Several Eurosceptic MPs asked yesterday in the Commons what will happen if London wants to diverge from community regulations in the future. The answer is that he has no intention of doing so, due to the damage it means for trade, and even less so if, as seems very likely, there is a Labor government from the autumn.
Ulster, as part of the deal, will receive 3.6 billion euros to repair the damage caused by the two years without autonomous government, with the province operating on autopilot, without budgets or salary increases for civil servants (police, teachers, doctors, nurses…), with frequent strikes and an enormous deterioration of public services. Hospital waiting lists have become eternal, education has deteriorated, drug use, poverty and violence against women have increased, rents have become unaffordable, homelessness is chronic. The people were tired and they have let their leaders know.
The DUP defied the zeitgeist by clinging to a hard Brexit (the majority of the province voted against leaving the EU), blocking the Assembly and preventing Sinn Féin from being at the helm. Two years later, what it has achieved is that the electorate is less inclined to vote for unionist parties, young people are more detached from politics and reunification is no longer taboo (although if it occurs it will be for economic and not ideological reasons). ). The steps one takes to get away from his destiny are precisely those that lead him hopelessly towards him. The main Protestant party has seen this firsthand.
Ulster is a society with very deep wounds due to the legacy of the Troubles, whose victims can no longer even seek justice before the courts because the British Government has decided to give a de facto amnesty to its soldiers, with deep resentment. and distrust. Sinn Féin supporters have celebrated the resumption of economic institutions and access to power with champagne, unionists have responded with resignation.
It is useless to fight against time. As KonstantinosKavafis said, time is oneself and does not exist outside of us.
