After Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in the primary elections of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) in Mexico, her path to the presidency in 2024 could not seem easier. A recent survey by the consulting firm Covarrubias y Asociados places the former head of Government of Mexico City as the great favorite to succeed President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), surpassing her opponent, Xóchitl Gálvez by more than 50 points, a percentage never before seen in the era of presidential election polls.
Claudia Sheinbaum, in addition to being the standard bearer of Morena, represents the Green Party (PVEM) and the Labor Party (PT), while Xóchitl Gálvez, from the Broad Front for Mexico, represents the National Action Party (PAN), the Revolutionary Party Institutional (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
In this distribution, only the Citizen Movement would be left out, which could present the governor of Nuevo León, Samuel García.
Morena’s political strength and its acceptance by Mexican citizens is evident. The polls carried out in recent months have not been wrong and the trend towards the left in Mexico continues to grow as the federal votes approach.
Although López Obrador’s six-year term is about to end, his popularity does not diminish, as he maintains the sympathy and trust of the citizens, which puts him in a historic situation that no president has achieved in the last 80 years.
The hegemony of López Obrador and the Morena coalition, and their reform project baptized as Fourth Transformation (4T), drives Claudia Sheinbaum, virtual candidate of the guinda party, as a wide favorite in the elections on June 2.
Where does Claudia’s power lie? The answer lies in a combination of three factors. The first is the popularity of the president, the second is the strategic campaign that he has carried out throughout the country and finally the mistakes that his rival, Gálvez, has made.
Covarrubias y Asociados, a prestigious polling company, has closely followed the evolution of the political scene and the conclusions it draws are that Mexico maintains its trend towards the predominance of the left.
The survey, to which La Vanguardia has had access, was carried out between September 19 and 25, 2023 and the sample size was 1,500 people visited personally. In the survey, Covarrubias y Asociados has asked citizens about the management of the President of the Republic and his rating. The result reveals that the president has an average rating of 8.32 (on a scale of 1 to 10). 55% of those surveyed rate it as 9 or 10; another 21% with an 8; 10% with a rating of 7 and 6; and only 5% would fail it with a 5 or less.
Regarding the duel between parties, the consulting firm has analyzed three fronts: the alliance of Morena, PVEM and PT; the Front for Mexico with the PAN, PRI and PRD and finally the Citizen Movement. The result of the polls places Morena and its allies with a voting intention of 58%, while the Frente Amplio would take 17% and Movimiento Ciudadano only 8%.
Covarrubias y Asociados also presents two scenarios between the presidential candidates. In the first are Claudia Sheinbaum, Xóchitl Gálvez and Samuel García. The result of the Morena standard bearer is 64% of the preferences, while Gálvez obtains 17% of the votes and Samuel García a poor 6%. In a second scenario, she faces Sheinbaum with Gálvez, and there the Morenista’s advantage increases significantly, obtaining 73% of the voting intention, while her rival from the Frente Amplio remains with 16%.
In the survey carried out by Covarrubias y Asociados in the Sheinbaum-Gálvez duel last July, the representative of Morena won by a margin of 56% against 23%, which means that in 60 days, Claudia’s preference has grown by 16 percentage points.
