Last Thursday’s elections in Pakistan already have an outcome. Neither more nor less than a reissue of the coalition that removed Imran Khan from power, almost two years ago, in a controversial motion of censure sponsored from the top. The repetition is so faithful that even the prime minister would be the same, Shehbaz Sharif, contrary to expectations.
Until the day of the elections, all the pools were betting on a government headed by Nawaz Sharif, the older brother of the previous one. To make it possible, the military leadership had buried the pending cases that kept him a fugitive in London. However, whoever was prime minister for three terms, without finishing any, will not have a fourth chance.
He is not forgiven for the defeat in seats against Imran Jan’s candidates, despite the fact that they had everything against them, with their leader imprisoned for spurious reasons and unable to attend with his initials or symbol. To this we must add the more than suspicious internet blockade during election day and during the count, which lasted for more than forty-eight hours. Jan’s party (PTI) denounces Tongo, without which they claim they would have obtained an absolute majority.
The final count (except for two constituencies to be resolved) gives 93 seats to the candidates loyal to the Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI), compared to 75 for the Muslim League (PML-N) of the Sharifs and 54 for the People’s Party of Pakistan (PPP) of the Bhuttos. However, the Pakistani military leadership has another ace up its sleeve that would have allowed them to grant victory in seats to the PTI candidates. In the Pakistani Assembly there are 70 seats reserved for women and religious minorities, which are distributed proportionally among the parties that have obtained representation. Having vetoed the PTI as a party, it will not be able to gain a single seat.
To this we must add that, as the weeks go by, many independents will fall into the temptation of transfuguismo, for economic benefit.
The political pact was announced this Tuesday night in the most feudal way possible, at a meeting of gentlemen at the Islamabad residence of the PML-Q chieftain, Pasha Shujaat Hussein. Both this last party and the MQM-P, of the Indian immigrants in Karachi, as well as some Islamist forces, which are very minority, have joined the reissue of the last parliamentary majority.
On the PPP side was Asif Ali Zardari, widower of Benazir Bhutto, who seems to have demanded, in return, to become president of Pakistan again, a position he held between 2008 and 2013. The will of Benazir Bhutto’s widower has prevailed over the of their son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who cherished the dream of being prime minister.
From the outset, however, Shehbaz Sharif’s investiture pact would not mean the entry of the PPP into the government. Its only objective, according to Zardari, is to “stay the course in economic and international policy.” To which Shehbaz has added the fight against inflation.
His brother Nawaz Sharif is not exactly leaving empty-handed. As part of the same pact, it would have been established that his daughter, Maryam Nawaz, will be the next head of government of Punjab, the most populated province, in which the independents also achieve better results (one more deputy) than her party.
Déjà vu is not going to please at all approximately half of Pakistanis – especially young, urban and middle and lower-middle class – who last Thursday voted, precisely, against giving an extension to those who defenestrated their beloved Imran Jan. The invitation for his deputies to join the parliamentary majority is little more than an invitation to transfuguism.
The animosity between the head of the Armed Forces, General Asim Munir, and Imran Khan is known. But new fights are coming on the street and it remains to be seen how long they will be able to keep the former captain of the cricket team behind bars. Without a doubt much less than the 31-year sentence that has been handed down to him, just on the eve of an election in which he has batted from the cell and much harder than anyone expected, including the referees.
(Below, image of the announcement of the parliamentary majority to invest Shehbaz Sharif, second from the left, with the host, in the center, Asif Ali Zardari and others)
