While Kyiv and its Western partners recognize that the situation on the front is “really difficult” for Ukrainian troops, in Moscow they celebrate the latest advances and the symbolic seizure of the Avdiyivka enclave. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the commander-in-chief of his armed forces, Valery Gerasimov, visited Russian fighters yesterday and put the latest advances of their forces in a context of victory.
After several months without being seen in public, the general reappeared in a video released by the Ministry of Defense, visiting and decorating soldiers who had taken part in the conquest of that city in Donbass. “The main task” of the Center group has been accomplished. “Avdíyivka is liberated,” he said.
On February 17, his counterpart in the Ukrainian armed forces, Olexándr Sirsky, announced the beginning of the withdrawal from Avdíyivka and the “transition to defense on more advantageous lines.” The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, justified this decision by the threat of his men being surrounded and by the need to save the lives of soldiers.
Before this war began, Avdíyivka was a small town (31,000 inhabitants) satellite of Donetsk (13 kilometers away), the most important town in Donbass. But in February 2024, no more than a thousand people live in this devastated city.
For Russia, the victory in this battle is presented as a significant step in its push to control the entire self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, which Moscow said it would annex in September 2022 even if it did not control all of its territory.
The same thing happened when Russia captured the small town of Soledar, in January 2023, and especially Bakhmut, in May; or Márinka, last December. But time will pass, the troops of the sides will readjust to the situation on the front and there will be another battle that the winner will consider “decisive” for his aspirations.
Although the enthusiasm is short-lived, the truth is that at this moment the initiative belongs to the Russians, and the Ukrainians, in need of Western weapons, have to defend themselves.
From Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the situation is “extremely difficult” for Ukrainian troops. “But the Ukrainians have exceeded our expectations time and time again,” he added.
This difficult situation is evident these days, in which the confidence of Western countries in a Ukrainian victory is faltering. The latest survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (CERE), carried out in January in 12 European countries and which La Vanguardia published exclusively on Wednesday, reflects the pessimism and fatigue of public opinion with a war that seems far from being resolved.
That economic and military aid from Kyiv’s partners is delayed adds more shadows of doubt. The European Union has just given the green light to 50 billion euros, but the 60 billion dollar package promised by the president of the United States, Joe Biden, is blocked in the House of Representatives, with a Republican majority. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dimitro Kuleba told CNN that Kyiv would not have lost Avdiyivka if it had received the artillery ammunition needed to protect it.
The Kremlin has contextualized the withdrawal of the Ukrainians from Avdíyivka as a victory. Putin received Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, his prominent ally and collaborator, on Tuesday afternoon. It was an “unquestionable success,” he said. Putin replied that the victory has to be consolidated and translated into new successes in other sectors of the front. And he ordered Shoigu to prepare the troops for that task. “The advance must be well prepared, supported with troops, weapons, war equipment and ammunition,” he indicated.
According to The New York Times, which quotes Ukrainian military personnel, “between 850 and 1,000 soldiers appear to have been captured or are missing.” Shoigu said that more than 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers died every day of battle.
Putin and Shoigu participated yesterday in a medal ceremony for members of the Russian Aerospace Forces, at the Chkalovski military airfield, near Moscow. The Russian leader highlighted that the military “showed bravery” during the fulfillment of their missions in Ukraine. “Their names will always be a symbol of the bravery and unlimited respect with which the people of Russia treat their army,” he stressed.
In its daily war report, the Ministry of Defense stressed yesterday that, in addition to Avdiyivka, the Russian army is improving its positions along the entire Donetsk front.
These attempts were confirmed yesterday by Kyiv. The deputy commander of the Third Brigade of the Ukrainian army, Maksim Zhorin, said on Ukrainian television that Russian troops are trying to advance west of that point. The Russians are targeting Lastochkine, two kilometers east of Avdiyivka. “They launch a large number of troops and military equipment in that direction (…) These are not isolated attacks, but rather constant assault attempts.” With “a lot of infantry, military equipment, and also aviation, they do everything possible to break, crush our defenses,” he stated.
In this unfavorable context, Ukraine continues to bet on hitting the Russian rear. On Tuesday, two missiles from the Himars system hit a Russian training range in the Donetsk region, when the Russian military was in formation awaiting the arrival of a general. According to the BBC, the attack caused 60 deaths. Russia acknowledged the attack, but downplayed it. Alexander Osipov, governor of Transbaikalia Krai, in Siberia, where the attacked unit came from, stated that “the information disseminated is greatly exaggerated.”
