Russia has overcome the difficulties created by Western sanctions and has not isolated itself, the country’s President Vladimir Putin said on Friday at the 26th International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. Although the bulk of his speech was devoted to economic issues, the Kremlin chief also spoke of the current Ukrainian counteroffensive. Kyiv’s troops “have no chance of advancing on any front,” he said. He asserted that “in theory” Russia could use nuclear weapons, but there is no need to.
“Everyone is waiting for us to start pushing the (nuclear) buttons. But that need is not there. That is the first consideration. There is no such need, because the enemy on the front line is not successful, that is the key.” Putin stressed.
The Kremlin chief explained that “nuclear weapons have been manufactured to ensure, in the broadest sense of the word, our security and the existence of the Russian state. But we have no need to use them,” he declared.
In addition, he made a second consideration: “We have more weapons of this type than the NATO countries, and they know it. All the time they urge us to start negotiations on the reduction. To hell with them,” concluded the head of Russian state.
In his speech, Putin started talking about the economy. “Despite all the difficulties of the past year, we have not strayed onto the path of isolation. On the contrary, we have expanded contacts with reliable and responsible partners in the countries and regions that today act as drivers of the world economy,” he assured during the opening speech of the plenary session of the forum, in which his Algerian counterpart, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, one of the international leaders who has visited the city of the Neva and who is in Russia on a state visit, also spoke.
During his speech, Putin praised the health of Russia’s public finances. In his opinion, Russian GDP will increase between 1.5% and 2% in 2023, as predicted by the European Central Bank (ECB), “which will allow our country to preserve its place in the list of six economies biggest in the world”.
In the first quarter of the year the Russian economy contracted by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2022. But, he stressed, in April it increased by 3.3%.
The Russian leader stressed that inflation, close to the all-time low of 2.9%, “is below that of many eurozone countries.”
He also assured that unemployment in Russia is 3.3%, the “never seen in our history.”
Even so, Russia presented in the first four months of the year a budget deficit of 40,979 million euros, according to the Ministry of Finance. Military spending in the past year is partly responsible. Putin justified it by assuring that it was necessary for security reasons.
“Naturally, additional funds were needed to strengthen defense and security, to buy weapons. We were obliged to do so to protect the sovereignty of our country,” he explained. “I have to say that, overall, it is justified from an economic point of view.”
Putin said that Russia’s economy is “disengaging” from its dependence on oil and gas revenues. Russian hydrocarbon exports have particularly felt the impact of Western sanctions, imposed against Russia for militarily interfering in Ukraine.
And he gave some data: between January and May, income that did not depend on gas and oil increased by 9.1%, more than expected. In May the percentage reached 28.5. This indicates, he pointed out, that “the real sector of the economy, the transforming sectors, commerce and services are gaining speed.”
Even before the current Ukrainian crisis, Putin already maintained that dependence on the gas-oil binomial was being overcome. In a December 2020 press conference, he assured that 70% of the Russian budget did not come from hydrocarbon production. There is no real basis anymore to present Russia as a gas station, he said then.
His speech was followed by a short dialogue moderated by the American political scientist Dimitri Simes, known for being one of the American voices on Russian television. Simes, born in Moscow but exiled to the United States in Soviet times, co-presents the political talk-show The Great Game on the First Channel, along with political scientist and deputy Viacheslav Níkonov, grandson of Stalin’s Foreign Minister Viacheslav Molotov.
Putin answered about the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has been underway for two weeks. “In some areas the Ukrainian troops reach the first line of defense,” he acknowledged. But he assured that the Russian defenses are stopping the attacks.
The Kyiv forces “have not achieved any results and their losses are very high”, ten to one compared to the Russian Army, he detailed. “As for (war) vehicles and equipment, we see that they are losing more and more. There are 186 tanks lost and 418 armored vehicles,” he said.
“Right now they are fighting, and I think the Ukrainian army has no chance,” Putin stressed.
He also argued that the Ukrainians are using their strategic reserves. They will run out of weapons, he predicted, relying only on those provided by the West, so Ukraine will not last “for long”, in his opinion. On the contrary, Putin said, “our defense industry has been expanding every day. (Production) has increased 2.7 times this year and for the most demanded products it has multiplied by 10. All the plants have three shifts and work the 24 hours a day, seven days a week,” he said.
Putin also had words for NATO, as he warned against the delivery of F-16 jets to Ukraine.
“If they are deployed to bases outside Ukraine’s borders and used in armed actions inside, we will have to think about where and how to dispose of the equipment that is used against us,” he argued.
As has become customary regarding Western military aid to Kyiv, Putin assured that with this type of support there is a risk that the Atlantic Alliance will become more involved in the conflict in Ukraine. And he added that the F-16s will suffer the same fate as the Leopard tanks. “Tanks burn. In particular, the Leopards do… So will the F-16s,” he said by way of sentence.
Putin’s presence at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which is being held in the second Russian city from June 14 to 17, has been accompanied by “unprecedented” security measures, according to his spokesman, Dimitri Peskov.
The Roscongress Foundation, organizer of the forum, reported that internet communications through mobile phone operators were going to be blocked on Friday. “Use wi-fi,” said Peskov, who linked these measures to the threat of attacks from Ukraine. “It is a normal practice. The enemy acts brazenly and does not give up their attempts to cause damage. It is very important to remain vigilant and mobilized,” he said.
In recent weeks, Russia has been the target of numerous drone strikes, as well as armed raids in the Belgorod oblast, along the Ukrainian border, and also explosions that Moscow attributes to Kyiv forces.
Although Saint Petersburg is quite a distance from Ukraine, a well-known military blogger, Vladlen Tatarski, was killed in a bomb attack last April. Moscow accused the Ukrainian secret services and Russian opponents.
Weeks later, another explosion near Saint Petersburg damaged a high-voltage line. The Russian authorities believe that it was sabotage.
