The wind is blowing in favor of Carles Puigdemont, who is the politician preferred by Catalans as the future president of the Generalitat, and Junts is the party that would benefit the most from the current political context, since, among other indicators, it is the one with the highest percentage of votes he could retain from his own in elections to the Parliament – his voting loyalty has grown almost 30% in the last year – according to the survey by the Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ICPS).
The ICPS survey has been published annually since 1988. The last one, corresponding to 2023, was prepared from 1,200 personal interviews carried out between October 31 and November 20. The political context in which it must be interpreted is the negotiation of the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, the final phase of which took place between those dates, and in which Junts had a prominent role. Puigdemont’s party is the one that would benefit the most from this negotiation and from his position of strength in Congress.
However, it remains to be seen whether this “irradiation” of Junts within the independence space is “temporary”, as explained by the director of the ICPS, Oriol Bartomeus, in a press conference at the Barcelona Provincial Council this Thursday in which presented the results of the survey. The important electoral “rebound” of Junts in the 2023 survey must also be interpreted taking into account that 2022 – as reflected in the previous survey, with data from that year – was particularly bad for the post-convergent formation, due to the Borràs case and due to his departure from the Government, Bartomeus stressed. “If we eliminated 2022 from the series, we would see a more continued increase in Junts,” he said.
The preferences of those surveyed regarding the next tenant of the Palau de la Generalitat are also favorable to Puigdemont. Given that there are no parliamentary elections called and in most parties it is not clear who the candidate would be, the ICPS chose to ask an open question to respondents about who they would prefer as president, without proposing a list of names. The de facto leader of Junts was the majority option. 16.7%, said Puigdemont, followed by the president of ERC, Oriol Junqueras (12.8%), the first secretary of the PSC, Salvador Illa (11.7%) and the president of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès (7. 3%).
Puigdemont is also the one who receives the most support from his own people to be president (65.7%), followed by Illa (42%) and Junqueras (34.1%). Furthermore, Puigdemont is also the one who attracts the most voters from the other pro-independence parties: 29.1% from the CUP and 19.3% from ERC. And a note about Illa, the most transversal: it is the option of 21.1% of Cs voters, 13.2% of En Comú Podem, 11.1% of the PP and even 6.3% of Vox and 4% of CKD.
Despite the electoral improvement of the independence movement (ERC also improves its figures), the survey does not show any possibility of the procés rebounding, although the option of Catalonia being an independent State still convinces 34% of those surveyed. It is the most voted option, followed by those who opt for an autonomous community within Spain (29.3%), those in favor of a State in a federal Spain (20.6%) and those who prefer a region of Spain (8 .6%). However, placed in the dichotomy of choosing between being an independent State or remaining in Spain, the majority of those surveyed, 52.5%, opt for permanence, compared to 39.5% who would like a break. The key is in the supporters of the federal State, who when forced to choose between independence yes or no, 59% choose to stay in Spain, compared to 29% who prefer the independence option.
