Donald Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, who successfully predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, recently warned of a “Harris Honeymoon” as Democrats unite around Vice President Kamala Harris. This warning came just before public polls started showing a narrow margin between Trump and Harris among likely voters, marking a significant shift from previous polls that had Trump leading President Biden by a larger margin.
The recent vibe shift in the polls is quite notable, especially considering the optimism Republican activists had after their convention in Milwaukee. Prior to the shake-up in the Democratic ticket, most voters believed Trump would win in November. However, with Harris quickly raising around $200 million in a week, the dynamics of the race seem to be changing.
Two key factors seem to be boosting Harris in the polls. Firstly, the unity within the Democratic party as Harris emerged as the presumptive nominee without facing a tough primary battle. This has given her an advantage by allowing her to bypass divisive issues that typically arise during a primary campaign. Secondly, Harris seems to be benefiting from a reset in the Democratic voter coalition, resembling the demographics seen during the Obama era. She is performing well among younger and nonwhite voters, groups where Biden struggled against Trump.
The recent polls reflect a deeply polarized country with a closely divided electorate. The absence of Biden, with his age and perceived decline, seems to have removed a distorting factor that may have skewed our perception of the race. Now, the race appears to be as tight as one would have expected from the beginning.
The shift in the polls suggests that the upcoming election will be closely contested, with both Harris and Trump having their own strengths and weaknesses among different voter groups. As the campaign progresses, it will be interesting to see how these trends evolve and whether any new factors come into play that could sway the outcome of the election.
