How quickly things fall apart. The deadly explosion that occurred on the afternoon of October 17 at the Al Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza killed many Palestinian refugees there. Despite strong evidence that these deaths were due to the failure of a fuel-laden Palestinian rocket, Arab countries have been quick to condemn Israel. Hezbollah, a heavily armed Lebanese militia, is inching closer to open war with Israel. The hard-built bridges between Israel and its Arab neighbors lie in ruins.
How fragile are the forces that try to hold things together. Fifteen hours after the explosion, President Joe Biden landed in Israel, an old man with the weight of the world on his shoulders. Biden’s diplomacy constitutes a geopolitical moment. In addition to showing his pain and support for Israel, he highlights how important this crisis is for the Middle East and for the United States.
For the past half century, the United States has been the only country willing and able to bring some order to the region. Despite the numerous failures of US policy in the area (including those in Iraq and Syria), Biden and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken have once again assumed that burden. Death and disease loom over Gaza. The poison spreads throughout the Arab world. Biden and Blinken don’t have much time.
The imminent danger lies in the opening of a second front in northern Israel. The death toll at Al Ahli hospital means that Hezbollah and its Iranian backers risk losing face if they fail to avenge lost Palestinian lives. Hezbollah will now have strong support in the Arab world if it attacks. If Israel concludes that war is inevitable, it may strike first. The United States has tasked two aircraft carriers with the task of dissuading Hezbollah and Iran from opening that second front. If necessary, he should use them for a show of strength.
A second danger is that Arab-Israeli relations will set back decades. Amid unprecedented Israeli bombing, Arabs remember other wars in which Israel attacked schools and hospitals. Israel has imposed a complete siege on Gaza; Its president has said that all Gazans have a shared responsibility. Despite Israel’s excesses, Arab leaders could have called for calm and an independent investigation into the hospital explosion. What appears to be a mass killing of Palestinians by Palestinians should redouble efforts to protect Gaza civilians and spur them to develop a regional plan for a better Palestinian future.
Instead, the explosion has deepened hatred and grievances. With statements that are not easy to rectify, Israel’s Arab partners have blamed the Jewish state. Jordan immediately canceled a summit between Biden and Arab leaders that had been the best hope for regional diplomacy. Egypt is more determined than ever to keep out temporary refugees in the Sinai, partly for fear of being seen as complicit with Israel in what Palestinians fear is a plan to permanently empty Gaza.
This is a regrettable failure of leadership, with profound regional and global repercussions. Most Arab governments abhor Hamas and its sponsor, Iran. Countries like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia need stability and benefit from good relations with Israel. However, they are so afraid of provoking the wrath of their citizens with the truth about the rocket’s origin that they have chosen to sabotage the long-term interests of their people.
For Iran, that already seems like a victory. For years it has maintained a strategy of financing, arming and training agents such as Hezbollah and Hamas. By their calculations, violence and chaos weaken Israel and discredit Arab governments. Should the vision of the United States fighting alongside Israel against Hezbollah lead to a breakdown in Biden’s relations with the Arab world, an ecstatic Iran will have laid the foundation for its regional dominance.
Russia and China are also winning. In the Global South there is a perception that this complex story is actually a simple story of oppressed Palestinians and Israeli colonizers. China and Russia will take advantage of this caricature to argue that the United States is showing its true contempt for the brown-skinned residents of Gaza and its hypocrisy on human rights and war crimes, as they claim it intentionally did by provoking a war in Ukraine.
What can Biden do? Its analysis must be based on the need for peace between Palestinians and Israelis and the recognition that there cannot be peace as long as Hamas governs Gaza; certainly not after having demonstrated that he puts hatred of Jews before any other objective. Gaza City is a labyrinth of tunnels. Therefore, destroying Hamas’s warfighting capabilities requires a ground offensive.
Everything is related to the continuation of that land war. The Al Ahli hospital tragedy supports the cynical calculation that Palestinian casualties help Hamas by weakening support for Israel. The Israeli military needs to be seen to respect civilians; among other things, because it needs time to destroy the Hamas tunnels. Gaza is in an extreme situation. The lack of sanitation threatens to cause epidemic outbreaks. Israel has finally agreed to allow some of the aid to reach Gaza. Much more will be needed. If Egypt continues to ban the entry of refugees, Israel will have to go further and create shelters on its own territory, in the Negev Desert, supervised by United Nations agencies.
It is also vital to detail what will come after the invasion. Israel must demonstrate that its fight is against terrorists, not the people of Gaza. He must commit to a new beginning after the war, with a reconstruction program and a promise that he will not strangle the Gazan economy. It must support a new Palestinian constitution and new elected leaders. All of that will be easier under a new Israeli government voted in when the war ends.
Even if Biden manages to convince Israel to take such measures, the most difficult question of all will remain. How to guarantee security in a post-Hamas Gaza? Israel cannot occupy the enclave permanently. That idea was already rightly abandoned in 2005. Therefore, an international commitment is needed. Since it is not clear who will join such an initiative, Biden must now begin to create a coalition. The more Israel demonstrates to the Arab world that it is serious about protecting civilians and planning for the day after, the more likely Arab leaders will do their part.
The task is not easy. There are many things that can and will go wrong. The deep-rooted anti-Zionism of ordinary Arabs will erode the leadership’s willingness to help. However, the alternative is the decay on which scavenger states like Iran and Russia feed. Biden is the only leader who can put things back together. If he fails and Middle East security collapses, it will also be a catastrophe for the United States.
————————————————– ———————————
© 2023 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved
Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
