The growing tension in the Middle East, aggravated by the attack this past morning by Israel against Iran, is reflected in oil prices, which have skyrocketed shortly after the news became known. Although the effect has been dissipating with the passing of the hours, the Brent oil reference contracts rose more than three dollars this morning, reaching above the threshold of 90 dollars.
A similar trend has been followed by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures. The price of a barrel has reached close to $86, from $82.73 at which it closed yesterday. Analysts interpret this upward movement as a symptom of increasing risk aversion. An Iranian counterattack poses “significant risks that the conflict will expand to the region and could jeopardize some oil supplies. Meanwhile, oil prices could remain firm as tensions continue to escalate,” he predicted in statements to Reuters. Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG in Singapore.
The markets closely follow the evolution of the conflict and react depending on how events develop. Thus, during the last week prices have been falling due to the perception that Israel would act in a moderate manner following the offensive launched against its territory last weekend by Iran, a member of OPEC. At first, this latest attack has set off alarm bells, although, after it emerged that its effect has been limited, calm has returned to the futures market prices.
In this sense, Bankinter analysts point out that “it will affect very little and will serve (positively) as a vaccine for the market, which will realize that the evolution of the geostrategy allows it to develop almost normally as long as it does not scale disproportionately.” A positive reading that, however, predicts that the escalation of tension “will frustrate a Friday that should have already been a stock market rebound.”
The main stock indices have also not been indifferent to the situation in the Middle East. After two upward sessions in which the markets were betting on a de-escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, early on Friday the Ibex fell 0.87%, to 10,671.80 points, while the index that groups the largest 300 European companies, the FTSE Eurofirst 300, fell by 0.60%, a similar percentage to that which the Stoxx Europe 600 fell – on the verge of closing its third week in negative -, and S futures
For their part, the prices of a barrel of Brent and WTI oil recorded a slight decrease, to 86.70 and 82.45 dollars, respectively, although the specter of a possible interruption in the supply of crude oil is still present if the conflict continues to rise in tone.
